Improvement On CLUE-S Model And Simulation Of Regional Land Use Change

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is an important content of geographical research on global change today. Spatial simulation on land use patterns is one of the key content of LUCC. Regional land use change is a complex process of geography. While modeling is an important tool to analyze the cause and result of the land use change, and can partly reveal the complexity of the land use system, enhance the ability of explanation and prediction of the land use change, understand the function of the land use system better. It is also an important means to deepen understanding the complexity of LUCC.In recent years, CLUE-S (The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent) model has used comprehensively in the world. This study mainly aimed at CLUE-S model to improve the model in spatial anaysis module by incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a classic logistic model. Meanwhile, the paper selected Yongding County of Zhangjiajie city as an example. By using the improved CLUE-S model, this paper simulated and analysed regional land use change in Yongding County. It is argued that the improved model based on autologistic method is reasonable in some degree. At the same time, these types of analysis can provide valuable information for modeling future land use change scenarios that need to consider local and regional conditions of actual land use, and the maps of land use changes obtained from this study can also support government decisions on land use management for Yongding County and similar areas. The main content and conclusion of this study are as follows:(1) Researching on the model of the total amount of land useAimed at the non-spatial analysis module of CLUE-S, through the state of division, this study constructed the non-spatial analysis model based on Gray-Markov chain to predict the total amounts of various land use types for a certain period of time. The Gray-Markov Chain Method is more reliable and effective because it avoids all kinds of facts about nature and society on the impact of land-use conditions. (2) Researching on the model of land use spatial changeThrough incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a classic logistic model, this study sets up a regression model (AutoLogistic model), which considers the spatial autocorrelation factor. Through comparison with the classic logistic model without considering the spatial autocorrelation, this model showed better goodness of fitting and higher accuracy of fitting. The distribution of land use types of cultivated land, forest land, construction land and virgin land yielded areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were improved to 0.893, 0.940, 0.907 and 0.863 respectively when using autologistic model.(3) Researching on the simulation-scale of land use changeBased on the improved CLUE-S model, land use change of Yongding County of Zhangjiajie city was simulated on different scales and the relationship of Simulation accuracy and scales was analysed by the simulation result. The optimal regional simulation scale (200m) was acquired. At the same time, the regional land-use change scenarios were simulated under the scale of 200m.