Land Use Change And Its Simulation On Urban Fringe Area Based On The CLUE-S Model

This study took Tong'an District which is the typical urban fringe of Xiamen City for example, land use data of the year 2000,2005,2010 was classified by three land use remote sensing data as the basic data source. According to the particularity characteristic of urban fringe land use, land use change was studied by a variety of indexes and models. The particularity of urban fringe in economic development and urban construction, from three aspects to analysis of the driving factors of land use in Tong'an district. These aspects are the terrain and human impact index factors, the social and economic factors and spatial factors. On this basis, CLUE-S model is adopted to perform natural development mode and planning mode on land use of Tong'an in 2020. The main research conclusions are as follows:(1) Forest land and garden plot was the main type of land use structure, the propotion of two area was more than 80% of the total area and the proportion of construction land is increasing. The quantity of land use changes presented three kind of land use increased and four decreased:forest land, water area and cultivated land showed a decreasing trend, and residential and traffic land, industrial land and unused land showed an increasing trend, namely the garden plot, residential and traffic land industrial land were expanding, forest and farmland were occupied. The main transfer characteristic was forest land converted into garden plot. From the view of three categories of land use, agricultural land (including forest land, garden plot, cultivated land), construction land (including residential and traffic land, industrial land) and unutilized land (including water area, unused land), agricultural land was the main outflow land use. Tong'an land use comprehensive index showed a gradual increasing trend:the index in 2000,2005, 2010 was 250.13,261.41 and 267.51.(2) The analysis of the driving force showed that with the increasing of elevation levels the HAI index showing a decreasing trend, with the gradual passage of time the performance of this trend was more significant, the HAI index showing an increasing trend in each elevation, which shows human activities in Tong'an district were mainly concentrated in the area below 200m, and during the process of urban development, people were more inclined to the lower altitudes rigions which the natural conditions was better and the regional comparisons economic benefits was greater; economic growth, adjust and optimize of industrial structure, population growth and urbanization driving the industrial land and residential and traffic land expand to other types of land use, making the construction land area expantion; The main driving factors which was selected from distance and terrain of forest land, garden plot and cultivated land covert into other types of land use, were altitude and the distance from railway, highway, residential area in 2000-2005, altitude, slope and the distance from river, railway, highway, State Road, residential area in 2005-2010. Making the agricultural land convert into residential and traffic land were altitude and the distance from transportation routes, river and residential area; converted into industrial land was drived by altitude, slope and the distance from transportation routes, river and residential area; forest land convert into garden plot showing a randomness trend, garden plot convert into forest land was mainly controlled by policy factors.(3) Based on 2000 current land use, choose eight driving factors which including six distance factor (the distance from river, railways, highway, State Road, County Road and residential area) and two terrain factors (altitude and slope), simulated land use distribution patterns in 2005 and 2010 with the CLUE-S model, verified results through the actual land-use data in 2005 and 2010, which reveals the kappa indexes of the two simulation results reaches 0.8436 and 0.8424, showing that CLUE-S model can be better perform simulation researches on land-use change spatial distribution pattern of Tong'an District. Based on the three land use data, the natural development mode and planning mode have been established to perform simulation on Tong'an District in the year 2020, the results showed that both situations showed a trend of construction land use expanding along County Road and State Road, otherwise at the natural development mode construction land was growing faster, at the planning mode was relatively slow; at the natural development mode changes in agricultural land showed forest land, water area and cultivated land decreased and garden plot increased, at the planning mode garden plot decreased and water area, cultivated land increased. Compared with the natural development mode, the ecological environment of the planning mode was obviously enhanced, the coordination between the construction of the ecological environment and land use was enhanced and the sustainable development of land use was enhanced.(4) To achieve the goal of sustainable development of land use, land use should emphasize urban construction and environmental protection, urban and rural land use unified and coordinated development, select the "intensification of land use, complement and protect cultivated land resources, the protection of rivers and forests." and other optimization strategies.