The Spatial Change Simulation Of Land Use Based On CLUE-S Model

The research of LUCC is a hot topic in the change area around the world recently.According to the feature that the population base is huge and the land resource is limited. Especially when the cultivated land resource shortage caused by the hard constraint of land resources constraints,changing the way of economic development is imminent. The research of LUCC arises at the historic moment.It also has a realistic meaning.The change of land use is not only the result of the integrated controllable factors, such as the geography, climate,other nature resource and so on, as well as all kinds of people, together with the irrational and random factors, and with the development of capacity of human on the natural use and the capacity of reform, the latter is more important and effective, especially in our country,under the background of land public ownership,irrational factors impact on land use change is more profound. The body of the general land use planning for all levels of government, although the preparation process is the combination and unification of scientific, technical and policy, but to some extent,the general land use planning at all levels is still more to consider the influence of random factors such as policies, laws and regulations. Visible, there is enough policy and lacking of scientific slightly in the general land use planning.Main research idea of this article is:the application of improved CLUE-S model (Dyna-CLUE), the study area choice for Anhui Wuhu. First of all, on the basis of the theory and method of research, through the investigation and data collection, it was summed up the impact of land use change driving factors; the application of binary regression model of LOGISTIC is for determining the best measure of the probability distribution of size and various driving factors, the use of GRAY MARKOV chain prediction model, on the basis of calendar year land use data, predicting different land types of the demand quantity in the future; Then under the optimum scale and the probability distribution of each driver, constitute all kinds of forecasting demand for land and all targets of the general land use planning based on the GRAY-MARKOV chain to two groups of land demand data,and enter the CLUE-S model.Finally,contrast and analyse the result of the two groups of data. Main conclusions of this article include:(1) building the analysis model based on GRAY-MARKOV chain in the state division,which can not only avoid the influence of the natural environmental conditions, social economic conditions and factors such as policy guidance,and also consider the land use status and quantity under different periods,therefore,prediction target in the study area in land use structure change is more accurate, providing a good method to predict land use change volume.(2) considering the difference of the Beta coefficient on different simulation scale, contrast and analyse the quality of the simulation result on different simulation scale,confirm the best simulative dimension of this study is100*100m.(3)the simulation result not only following the general rule of social and economic development, also accurately reflects the layout and overall direction of the social and economic development of urban and rural areas of Wuhu, so the CLUE-S model is more realistic and accurate.(4) because of the different land use ultimate goals, leading to two simulative results,they are based on the planning index,increase or decrease in the size and type of the main land types are not the same. Based on this, in the process of implementation of general land use planning can adjust goals of land use, leading to the mutual conversion realistic and accurate.(4) because of the different land use ultimate goals, leading to two simulative results,they are based on the planning index,increase or decrease in the size and type of the main land types are not the same. Based on this, in the process of implementation of general land use planning can adjust goals of land use, leading to the mutual conversion between different land types, making the land use structure optimization, achieving the target of the space adjustment of land use. For our country, the implementation of general land use planning and management provide a new method and means.(5) the simulation of LUCC can gives "vector"f or the general land use planning of the indicators on the space, complement the current index of the decomposition process further, making the future land use space layout more scientific, which is of great significance to the sustainable development of social economy.