Stimulation On Land Use/Land Cover Change In The Huangshui River Basin Based On CLUE-S Model

With the lucubrating research on global changes，land use/land cover change(LUCC)becomes an important field in global changeresearches．Land use change is acomplex process of geography．While modeling is an important tool to analyze thecause and result of the land use change and predict the land use change trend．In this study,we take the Huangshui river basin in Qinghai province as the studyarea,based on CLUE-S model,18key driving factors were selected,includingelevation,slpoe,aspect,distance to river,distance to roads,distance to urban and ruralresidential area，population density,local financial revenue and so on.Firstly land usespatial distribution pattern in1996and2007for the Huangshui river basin weresimulated using land use data in1987. Secondly land use spatial distribution pattern in2007for the Huangshui river basin was simulated using respectively land use datain1987and1996; Then,this study built different scenarios of land use change for thenext20years (2008～2027) and simulated land use change under different scenarios.Finally, the study analyzed land use driving mechanism of the Huangshui river basinfrom1987to2027, and proposed appropriate countermeasures for the land useplanning and management in the future.The main results showed that:(1)Both using the same year’s land use data to simulate different years’ land usespatial pattern：using the data of1987simulated land use spatial pattern in1996and2007, and simulating land use spatial distribution pattern of the same year based ondifferent year’s land use data：using the data of1987and1996simulated land usespatial pattern in2007respectively,the simulations have achieved good results. Theoverall accuracy of the three simulations (1987simulated1996,1987simulated2007and1996simulated2007) reach up to94.02%,88.31%and89.96%respectively,theKappa index of three series are all larger than0.82. The results suggest that CLUE-Smodel has a good ability to simulate land use in the Huangshui river basin, and it hasgood applicability in land use simulation studies in the Huangshui river basin.(2)Refering to the future development planing of the Huangshui river basin,builtthe different scenarios of future land use change,and predicted four different scenariosof land use changes of the next20years (2008～2027) in the Huangshui river basinusing the CLUE-S model,and explored the changes of land use spatial distribution pattern underdifferent ranges of returning cultivated land. The simulation results showthat: there is an obvious difference under different scenarios of land use spatial patternthe range of returning farmland will lie in the east,west and north in the next20years.The returning of cultivated land in eastern region of the basin focuses on Leducounty and Minhe county; The returning of cultivated land in northern region of thebasin focuses on the northern part of the Datong county; The returning of cultivatedland in northern region of the basin focuses on both sides of the river which lies in thenorthwest of Huangyuan county.(3)The land use/land cover change is the result of natural and human factorsfrom1987to2007.In different study period, the role of various driving factors aredifferent.The economy and population factors are the main driving factors of land usechange from1987to1996, the economy factor, population factor, level of urbanizationand policy factor are the main driving factors of land use change from1996to2007.(4)This study has proven the CLUE-S model has a very good compatibility inthe Huangshui river which is located in the transition zone of the Qinghai-Tibetplateau and the Loess plateau, the complex terrain region.The study provide areference for the domestic counterparts who will carry out similar studies in complexterrain region in the future.