Employment Capacity Transfer Of Rural Surplus Labor Force In Prefecture-level City

In recent years，along with the development of the city，the employment transferof rural labor force in China has entered a new historical stage. The rural labor forceis changing from limited supply to the limited surplus，and the rural labor market ischanging from "demand leading type" to "supply leading type"，the employmenttransfer of rural labor changing from "amphibious" and "the tide of migrant workers"to "long living type" and "shortage of migrant workers"，and from disorderly toorderly and mixed development of periodic "returning tide". The deep-seatedcontradiction between nationwide rural labor "stock" employment transfer and "flow"transfer employment has become increasingly prominent. In the meanwhile，thetransfer of labor force to the city will inevitably bring about resources andenvironment，economic activities，social development and a series of bearing pressuremore and more serious. The sustainable development of city must be based on the citycarrying capacity. Therefore，It is very necessary to study the employment capacitytransfer of rural surplus labor force is very necessary.By the end of2012，our country includes285prefecture-level city， wherein thenon-capital cities reaches251，accounting for about88%of the total. As the mostimportant regional economic unit in China， while big cities’s absorbing rural surpluslabor force bearing excessively or getting saturated，the non-capital cities will becomethe main force army to absorb surplus rural labor through the improvement of itsfunctions. This article aims to use the method of factor analysis，cluster analysis，multiple stepwise regression analysis to evaluate the capacity transfer of rural surpluslabor force employment of non-provincial capital cities in our country. TakingZhuzhou city as an example，it forecasts the transfer employment capacity level ofrural surplus labor force from2011to2020，and gives a further analysis of theevaluation results in the perspective of static and dynamic spatial location and thetrend of development.First of all，it sorts out the relevant theory of the transfer of rural surplus laborforce to build capacity index system that includes three aspects such as resources andenvironment，economic activities and social development. Through the comparison ofthe existing evaluation method，it uses the evaluation methods as the next theory andempirical analysis basis.Secondly，PCA method is adopted to evaluate the horizontal bearing capacity ofemployment on the transfer of rural surplus labor of the251non-capital cities.Through the factor scores and weights，it uses cluster analysis methods to divide thecity into three categories in terms of high，middle，low and ten small types.Next，based on the evaluation results of the PCA method and clustering method，this thesis gives a comprehensive analysis of spatial location and the development trend of non-capital cities from static and dynamic aspect. From theperspective of spatial location， the horizontal bearing capacity of the easternnon-provincial capital cities is far more than the city in the central and westernregions，coastal city is generally higher than the inland city. From the point of view ofdevelopment trend，the bearing capacity levels in high bearing capacity city rise inrecent ten years，the bearing capacity levels in middle bearing capacity cities arerelatively stable，bearing stress levels in low capacity city continue to decline，the gapbetween different regions is more and more obvious.Then this thesis based on the transfer of rural surplus labor from2001to2010，selects a representative city to build multivariate stepwise regression model，and givesan analysis of correlation degree between transfer number and some index in regions.Through the situation analysis， tries to construct three kinds of plan of high，low andmiddle，and predicts the number of rural labor transfer in this region over the next10years. It also provides reference for the levels of rural surplus labor transfer in otherparts of，this thesis selects Zhuzhou city in Hunan province as an example.Finally，this thesis proposes policy recommendations based on the above analysisto promote the coordinated development such as maintaining moderate economicgrowth， narrowing regional differences; adjusting the industrial structure，accelerating the development of the tertiary industry; promoting regional coordinationand the equalization of public services; strengthening the city infrastructureconstruction to develop the level of city management to improve the rural labor to cityof horizontal bearing capacity.