Proper Herdsmen Population Calculated Based On Remote Sensing Model In The Three-River Headwaters Region

To maintain the balance between grassland, livestock and herdsmen population, and figure out the properherdsmen population scale of the Three-River Headwaters Region, this study establishesgrass yield RS models based on 5 kinds of remote sensing factors to 11 vegetation types respectively, and estimates the grass yield of the Three-River Headwaters Region using the optimalRS model of each vegetation type, and then calculates the proper grazing capacity, properherdsmen population scale and the corresponding overload scale(rate), and finally figures out the migration scale and puts forward relevant policy suggestions. After the study, the conclusions are as follows:1) There is a strong correlation between 5 RS factors and grass yield, the best factor is EVI.EstablishRS model for each grass type can improve the estimation precision of yield.2) In the Three-River Headwaters Region, the grazing yield amount is 55.52 million tones, the edible forage yield is 18.42 million tones, the proper grazing capacity is 23.839 million unite sheep. Under the herdsmen’s basic living standards, the properherdsmen population scale in 2014 is 815100 people, overload population is 345700 people, of which 51,400 people need to be work-converted, 294300 people need to be immigrated.Under the national farmer-herdsmen averageliving standards, the corresponding numbers are 721700, 385600, 144700, 240900.3) By the comparison of year 2014 and 2010, it is found that the grassland ecosystem has been restored in some degree. In 2014, the actual grazing capacityincreased, as well as the overload rate in the whole study area whichis still a negative, and the positive overload ratesof counties aredecreasedon the whole. The actual herdsmen population and its overload rate increased. The fact shows that the situation ofthe serious livestock overload region is improved, the livestock carrying is balanced in some degree, but the overload herdsmen population is still rising.4)The spatial distribution of overload shows that, there are both serious overload areasand underused areas. The increase rate of actual herdsmen population is greater than that of actual grazing capacity, itmeans some people rely on government subsidies to supplement and maintain their life, and there is no limitation for population increase in the Three-River Headwaters Region.All these imply maybe one big hidden danger of overload in the future.5)Recommended by changing the migration patterns, increasing the chance of work converted, implementing the family planning, increasing the education funding, etc. to control the herdsmen population scale, realize the rational allocation of utilization of grassland resources.