Research On Rumor Spreading Model With Psychological Feature Of Individuals

With the rapid development of Internet technology, rumor spreading has caused deeper negative impact on the modern society. In order to understand the transmission mechanism of rumors, it is of a great significance to establish a rumor spreading model which conforms better to the real spreading process of rumors. Complex network has included many real networks of different fields in the human society, and its theory has provided universal methods to study the similarities between those real networks. Based on the complex network theory, research on rumor spreading model performs better on simulating dynamics of rumor propagation in real networks, so as to provide theoretical basis for the study on rumor control. The main research work of this paper is as follows:1. Considering that there exists the conformity effect in the real social network, the dynamic descriptions of the probabilities of rumor spreading and a spreader coming to reason are improved, and a rumor spreading model with conformity effect is proposed. Numerical analysis shows that the ultimate scale of rumor propagation increases with the initial probability of rumor spreading. Matlab simulations show that the conformity effect will accelerate the rumor spreading. Monte Carlo method is utilized to simulate the rumor spreading in the small-world network and the scale-free network, and results show that under the influence of the conformity effect, the rumor spreads faster and deeper in the scale-free network. In addition, the speed of rumor spreading and the proportion of the spreaders increase with the influence of the rumor spreader.2. In the real online network, opinions expressed by network users have a characteristic of anonymity. The effect of Anti-Silence Spiral on rumor spreading is studied. A dynamic description of the probabilities which reflects the effect of Anti-Silence Spiral in the process of rumor spreading is put forward. The numerical analysis of the improved model shows that effect of Anti-Silence Spiral can lead to two different results in the rumor propagation, and the simulation results show that when the rumor spreaders form a large proportion, the effect of Anti-Silence Spiral will inhibit rumor spreading to some extent. Combined with the real online networks, the simulations of rumor spreading show that the degree of the initial spreading node can exert different impacts on rumor spreading.3. Considering there exists a close relationship between the rumor and the media in the rumor spreading process, an improved rumor spreading model which introduces the mechanism of rumor refutation of media is established. The characteristics of rumor refutation of media are analyzed based on the strength of media’s rumor refutation, the credibility level of media and the time of media refuting the rumor. Under the different conditions mentioned above, simulations are conducted to simulate the rumor spreading process. The results show that if the media credibility is at a very low level, or the rumor refutation of media is excessive, the rumor propagation will be aggravated. Besides, timely rumor refutation of media will inhibit the rumor propagation effectively.