Research On Demand Forecasting Of High-skilled Talents In Shanxi Province

With the sustainable development of China’s market economy inrecent years, the talent strategy in China regards high-skilled talents as one ofthe key objects of it, their core position in the technical groups in variousprovinces and cities has been attached great importance to, so studying on theproblem of high-skilled talents has already become one of the current hotresearches. High-skilled talents mainly distribute in the front-line positions ofdifferent industries, such as production industry, transportation industry, serviceindustry and communication industry and so forth. They have profoundtheoretical level in knowledge, outstanding practical ability in skill and goodprofessional quality and innovation in thinking, who should pass the nationalvocational qualification level three above. As the backbone of promoting thesustainable development of economy in Shanxi Province, they are practitionersin the technical workers team. And they are also the indispensable importanthuman resources in the province. However, the province’s high-skilled talentshave been in a state of shortage at present, which hampers economic steadydevelopment in Shanxi Province.This paper that focuses on the connection of theory and practice, combinesqualitative research with quantitative analysis to use. Based on a reasonablegrasp of the connotation of high-skilled talent, at first, it investigatesthe affecting factors of demand for high-skilled talents and establishes ascientific index system of demand forecasting of high-skilled talents byfollowing the principle of index selection at the same time. Then it applies anew prediction method, BP neural network to build demand forecasting modelof high-skilled talents in Shanxi Province, and compares its test results with thefitting results of GM (1,1) grey system forecasting model from five angles toprove that introducing the forecasting model into this new field about demand for high-skilled talents is effective and feasible. What’s more, it predicts andanalyzes demand of high-skilled talents in Shanxi Province from2015to2020,then the result shows that the province’s demand for high-skilled talents willcontinue to increase in the next six years. At last, it pertinently puts forwardsome countermeasures and suggestions to cultivate high-skilled talents fromfour aspects, such as, changing traditional concept of talent, improving majorsetting, increasing incentive measures and improving skill appraisal mechanism,which gets rid of the constraint about presenting high-skilled talentsdevelopment countermeasures based on purely theoretical analysis in the pastand enriches the literature in this field.By reading a large number of literature, it finds that most of the currentstudies for high-skilled talents are confined to theoretical research. Andqualitative research is much more than quantitative analysis, such as describingshortage situation and analyzing the causes and related policies, but it lacksconvincing empirical analysis. There are rare researches on the quantitative dataand prediction models, even the methods are also old-fashioned. Aiming at theproblem, this paper is based on the analysis of economic function and presentsituation of high-skilled talents in Shanxi Province and attempts to make abreakthrough innovation in terms of quantitative forecasting models. Itintroduces a new popular prediction model, that is BP neural network predictionmodel which appears in recent years to establish an advanced demandforecasting model of high-skilled talents in Shanxi Province, then it predicts theprovince’s demand for high-skilled talents. The article provides not onlyscientific basis and reference for the government and employing units to makethe right decision, but also a new method for quantitatively studying onhigh-skilled talents in the future.