Demand Forecasting And Management Of Scientific And Technological Talent In Shanxi

In the era of knowledge economy, progress in science and technology to promote economic development is increasingly apparent. In the process of regional economic development, as the leading force in promoting scientific and technological progress, science and technology talents not only to drive the improvement of scientific and technological innovation, promote the adjustment of the industrial structure and the transformation of economic growth mode, have gradually increasing the contribution rate of the total value of regional industrial GDP. It can be said that the scientific and technological talents have become the key to enhance the level of regional economic development and regional competitiveness. Construction of resource based economy synthetically reform testing district provides a good opportunity to realize transformation of leapfrog development in Shanxi province, also sets new requests to the scientists and technicians. High beginning reforming needs the high level talented person to eagerly anticipate, the high grade spanning needs the high quality talented person troop support. Only then fully conducts the scientists and technicians demand forecast correlation research, clearly knows the needs, the types and structures of science and technology talent for future economic development in Shanxi province, the Government will have to introduce, develop and use them, and build up a proper scale, reasonable structure, high-quality science and technology workforce. Only in this way can promote technological progress and innovation, and achieve faster and better development of economic society.In the perspective of comprehensive reform, this article first to understand and analyze the need for transformation, the strategic focus and path selection of Shanxi Province. Then, with human capital theory, new economic growth theory, matching theory, knowledge of labor management theory and regional economic development theory as a guide, it describes the important role of science and technology talents in the economic development, analyzes the talent supply situation and existing problems of science and technology talents in Shanxi province. Third, according to the relevant information and data in scientific and technological personnel, it forecasts total demand, industry distribution, education structures for technology professionals of Shanxi province in2011-2015with GM(1,1) gray prediction model, multiple regression prediction model, trend extrapolation and the combination prediction method. Forth, this paper analyzes the supply and demand gaps of total amount and structure of scientific and technological personnel in "12Five-Year" period. The three conclusions of Shanxi province are as follows:(1)The total demand for technology professionals will be a significant and rapid growth trends. The supply and demand gap will be larger.(2) There are structural contradictions between supply and demand of Scientific and technological talents. The tradition pillar industry, the high-tech industry, modern service industry all have the big growth to scientists and technicians’ demand. The rate of rise is all very fast, but the speed-up differences among the three industries are not very big.(3) There are qualitive contradictions between supply and demand of Scientific and technological talents. The supply and demand gap of technology professionals with postgraduate degrees is the biggest, the growth rate of demand is also the fastest. Although there is supply and demand gap of technology professionals with bachelor’s degree, the growth rate of demand is slower. Only needs a small amount of additional technology professionals with Specialist qualifications. Finally, on the basis of the prediction and analysis, this article gives policy recommendations from structural adjustment, institutional mechanisms, environmental optimization, personnel training, platform carrier perfectives. Look forward to provide reference for future decision-making about Scientific and technological personnel training and development.This thesis topic meets the era of hot spots. This article combines the Science and technology talent team construction with the request of region economy development in Shanxi Province to study requirements of sci-tech talents of new resource-based economies in transition. This approach makes the research more focused and operability. Therefore, to a certain extent, this paper can provide reference to expand the scientific and technical personnel in Shanxi Province. In addition, the forecast itself is speculative. The longer, the results are less accurate. According to requirements of the economic development in Shanxi province, the government still need to constantly modify and accurate specific data of scientific and technological personnel, in order to ensure the smooth progress of the transformation of the economic structure of Shanxi province. The government needs to do dynamic research on coordination of economy development and the talented person system, on coordinated adaptation of industrial upgrading and technological talents, in order to constantly adjust and improve talent development strategy of science and technology in Shanxi province.