| In all disasters human beings face, fire is the one which is a common, broad and inevitable disaster. While it directly brings the losses to public’s life and property, it also has potentially huge negative effects on the human society. Though mankind has step into the information era, and fire protection measures are gradually improved, the situation of the fire disaster are still severe, and even worse. While take advantages of the convenience the fire brings, figure out the law of the fire occurrence and minimize the losses from the fire disaster are also urgent problems for human to be resolved.Based on the history data of fire occurrence from 1996 to 2013, and with the aid of statistical software, we study the fire risk using statistical analysis method and fuzzy mathematical method. The main contents are as follows:1. According to the historical data of fire in Yunnan Province, author makes a brief statistics description about the cause of fire and the distribution of the fire in Yunnan province., and uses SPSS software to draw the chart about the number of fire and casualties, the interannual variability of direct economic loss, in order to analysis and make a comprehensive understanding of the overall situation of fire in Yunnan province.2. We select three important indicators of fire (including fire number, the death toll, direct economic loss) and use information diffusion theory to carry out specific analysis on fire risk in Yunnan province, in order to reveals the uncertainty of information diffusion. And at the same time integrate the Bootstrap method, using R software to estimation risk’s interval estimation. By comparing and analyzing the results of the two models, to improve the rationality and reliability of fire risk analysis, in order to make a more practical application value.3. According to the characteristics of the fire situation and risk in Yunnan Province, the author puts forward some suggestions on the work of Yunnan Province on the two aspects of fire prevention and disaster reduction in Yunnan Province, according to the deficiency of the fire protection work. |
