| With the improvement of economic development and people’s income, more and more passengers choose air travel, the civil aviation passenger transport industry has ushered in a new era of development. As one of the three major hub airports in our country, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport has undertook the arduous task of civil aviation transport industry development for the Pearl River Delta region, Hong Kong and Macao. After the opening of the third runway, the airside capacity has expanded, however, because of the ground road resources tense problems, the situation of “flying in the middle, congestion in the sides” happens frequently, the landside collecting and distributing system is facing a great challenge. In order to put forward solutions for alleviating the congestion problems of Baiyun Airport collecting and distributing system, this article started with air passengers arrive and leave airport mode choice, combined with the questionnaire and investigation, completed the whole paper.First of all, set the air passengers of Baiyun Airport as the research object, adopted two kinds of research methods which called system analysis and the combination of qualitative and quantitative, clarified the research content and framework of this paper; started with the principle of the Binary-nomial Logit model and Multi-nomial Logit model, detailly educated the model base of this paper-- the Nested Logit model; through the detailed analysis of the Baiyun Airport collecting and distributing system and the air passengers arrive and leave airport mode choice behavior, clarified the characteristics of the research object; Secondly, established a two-level Nested Logit model based on the air passengers arrive and leave Baiyun Airport mode choice, set up four kinds of transportation modes for arrive and leave airport, after determined the various of influence factors, described the optimization algorithm principle of a statistical software called SAS, used it to program and solve the model twice, the first time aimed to weed out some unnoticeable influence factors, forecast the probability distribution of the air passengers arrive and leave airport mode choice; Finally, compared the investigation results and the statistical results of previous years, the conclusion indicated that the proportion of private car has declined, the proportion of metro has increased; combined with the actual situation of investigation, this paper described the present problems of the external transport and internal transport in Baiyun Airport, confirmed the development pattern which set the public transport as leader; combined with the future development of Baiyun Airport collecting and distributing system, rebuild a three-level Nested Logit model, defined more detailed utility function; used the grey model to predict the passenger flow of the intercity bus in 2020, meanwhile, used the Delphi method to analysis and predict the passenger flow and proportion of the intercity bus and railway in 2020; based on the elastic theory of economics, made sensitivity analysis for the air passengers arrive and leave airport mode choice; then put forward a lot of improving projects for the collecting and distributing system of Baiyun Airport from the viewpoint of airport operator, all kinds of transportation operators, airlines and air travellers, so as to achieve the purpose of improving the efficiency of the passenger collecting and distributing, optimizing the allocation of overall resources, reducing emissions, improving the quality of environment, all these have important practical significance. |
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