Research On Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior Considering Passengers’ Psychological Variables During The COVID-19 Period

In 2020,countries all over the world suffered from the COVID-19.The transportation industry of China,which is at the forefront of epidemic prevention and control and service guarantee,was also seriously affected by the epidemic.While the total travel demand of residents between cities has decreased significantly,the transport mode of passenger transport sharing the passenger flow of inter-city transport also changed.In order to study the inter-city travel mode choice behavior under the new situation,based on the better explanatory power of the theory of planned behavior in predicting behavior problems,this paper proposes an expanded TPB to explain the travel behavior under the condition of COVID-19.This paper introduces the subjective variables of travelers into the utility function of the Logit model,and constructs a Hybrid Choice model of inter-city travel mode choice behavior by combining the latent variable model based on the expanded TPB with the traditional discrete choice model.The first part,based on analyzing the characteristics and demand of inter-city transportation,the main influencing factors affecting inter-city travel mode choice behavior are explored and sorted out,including the micro factors(traveler’s personal and family social attributes,travel mode characteristics,etc.)and macro factors(psychological influencing factors,life values,etc.).Therefore,the theoretical framework of inter-city travel mode decision-making based on the TPB is constructed.And the influence mechanism and psychological thinking process in the decision-making process are analyzed and explained in detail.In the second part,combined with the SP&RP survey method,the sample data of intercity travel mode choice are collected through network survey.Variety analysis,factor analysis and other analysis methods are used to describe the travel mode choice characteristics and behavioral psychological characteristics of inter-city travelers.The differences in psychological latent variables and travel mode choice among inter-city travel groups with different socio and economic attributes are explored in this paper.In the third part,in order to explore the internal relations among the psychological variables,this paper builds a structural equation model under the framework of the expanded TPB and estimated the parameters of the model.This model mainly explores the correlation among the potential variables such as "behavior Int","behavior attitude" and "subjective norm" in the four modes of travel choice models of ordinary trains,high-speed trains,airplanes and self-driving cars,and clarifies the key influencing factors of different modes of travel.In the last part,a Hybrid Choice model is constructed by integrating the Structural Equation Modeling with the expanded TPB as the core and the discrete choice model with the Multinomial Logit Model as the core,which is used to describe the choice behavior of inter-city transportation modes.The research results show that SEM-Logit model has a higher degree of fitting data and stronger predictive power than traditional discrete choice model.By estimating the parameters of explicit variables in SEM-Logit model,we can have a deeper understanding of the social demographic characteristics of travelers and the influence of psychological variables on mode choice behavior,and then help railway transportation and other relevant departments to grasp the demand situation of inter-city travel and provide data support,which is beneficial to the development and structural adjustment of inter-city passenger transport.