The Demand Forecast Of P&R Facilities In Big Cities

The scientific and reasonable demand forecast of Park and Ride (P&R) facility notonly can effectively ease urban traffic congestion, provide adequate parking spaces forcommuters, but also to avoid wasting money and land resources. Through surveys, thestudy analyzes the relative factors of the demand forecast of P&R, and hope to canprovide a reasonable basis for future planning and policy formulation.Firstly, the study summarizes the experiences in building P&R facilities of thelarge cities in domestic and international, and gives the definition of P&R facilities,the origin, development and classification briefly. By reviewing history experiences,the study analyzes the positive and negative impacts may be caused by P&R facilitieson the cities, and finally gives the necessity of the implementation of P&R facilities inBeijing.The study makes deeply study on the general travel characteristics, including thetraveler’s features, travel features and travel modes features. Based on the aboveanalysis, the study designs the questionnaire, and conducts a sampling survey on theusers of existing P&R facilities in Beijing; meanwhile, for users groups who has a carin Beijing conducted a random sampling questionnaire survey; Based on the surveydatas, the basic users characteristics of Beijing P&R facility were analyzed, andanalyzes the willingness features of user groups who has a car when selecting thetravel modes by the optimal scaling analysis.Based on the maximum effect theory, the study gives the demand forecastingmodel, and calibrates and validates the model through SPSS and Transcad. The modelreflects the four main factors may influence the demand forecasting of P&R facilitiesin Beijing, namely income, transit service levels, total travel time and total travel costs,and the total travel time and total travel costs are the key factors.