Research On Park And Ride Choose Behavior And Travel Demand Forecasting Method In Big Cities

In recent years,the cities in our country have developed rapidly,and the number of motor vehicles has increased dramatically.It brings some serious environmental and energy problems to the development of cities,while facilitating daily life of residents.In order to alleviate the enormous pressure that brought by the growing private cars on urban traffic,it is imperative to develop public transport actively.Rail transit has been further developed in large and medium-sized cities,and many cities have 2 subway lines built at least,and will complete the rail line network.The service level of ground conventional bus is also rising,and it provides excellent service to residents travelling.First,this thesis introduces the basic characteristics,traffic characteristics,spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of car travel and public transport travel respectively.Then combine the two modes of travel to do a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of P&R travel.According to the problems of urban traffic in our country and the resources and environmental conditions,demonstrate the necessity and feasibility of the planning and construction of P&R facilities.This thesis chooses Suzhou City,Jiangsu Province as the experimental investigation site,to collect personal attributes,travel attributes,family attributes,economic attribute,policy attributes and other data about residents’ travel behavior by using the combination of RP and SP survey.Through comprehensive analysis obtain the main factors that affecting residents’travel choice behavior.Because the modes of travel can be divided into three types:car travel,car transfer to the ground bus and car transfer rail transit,establish multi-nomial logit model that based on random utility theory to calibrate and teat model variables.The SPSS software is used to conducte a correlation analysis about the factors that affecting the choice of mode of travel.And using the method of controlling variables to analyze the influence of a single factor on the choice of travel,it provides a theoretical method for guiding the traveler to choose public transportation.In order to give full play to the role of park and ride system,put forward specific measures to promote the development of park and ride from policies and regulations,management methods and facilities design respectively.Considering China’s national conditions comprehensively and promoting sustainable development in the long run.