Study On Demand Forecasting Of Park-and-Ride From Satellite Cities To The Main City Zone

With the acceleration of urbanization, the city's economy and population are in a constant state of expansion, which not only makes the scope of the city continue to spread to the periphery, but also to makes the surrounding Satellite Cities and cities closer together.The main city is in the escalating tensions about traffic congestion, environmental pollution, scarcity of land resources issues, While also bearing the pressure of the passengers from Satellite Cities, so it is becoming more and more severe of the problem.Park and Ride (referred to as the P & R) is an urban transportation demand management (TDM) means.There have been many successful examples in research and application abroad.Nowdays many major cities in China such as Shanghai, Beijing, have been increasingly trying to set P & R facilities that have achieved a certain effect.Therefore, it is very necessary of the P & R demand forecasting study from Satellite Cities to the main city,in order to make P & R system functions better and planning more scientific.The paper, based on the object of study on P & R demand from Satellite Cities to the main city, does research on the P & R demand forecasting from the perspective of choice behavior.First of all, It firstly reviewes the relevant studies about P&R at home and abroad and then summarizes the contents including the analysis of features about P & R choice behavior, the analysis offactors which will affect the demand and the demand forecasting model.Secondly,it expounds systematically the theory relating to P & R from the Satellite Cities to the main city,which includes the basic theories of Satellite City and P & R, the analysis for Household Travel Characteristics In Satellite Cities,and defining P & R system from the Satellite Cities to the main city.After mastering travel characteristics of Satellite City, it does the survey on P & R demand of permanent residents in Satellite Cities.By the compareing the two survey methods,SP survey methods was selected. On this basis, it designs the survey and identifies the analytical content which is the internal relations on the behavior of P & R demand factors with the personal property,the travel case and the context assumption. Combining the analysis of factors affecting P&R demand and using principles of the disaggregate model,it creates a forecasting method what the first step is to build a P&R demand forecasting model for the travel form a single Satellite City to the main city and the second step is to summarize the results of each Satellite City.Finally,this paper selects satellite town Pi county Chengdu as an example for testing the methods theory.Validation results confirm that those theories and methods are reasonable.