Sensitivity Analysis Of Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow Forecast

Passenger forecast of urban rail transit is a recent development traffic prediction, it notonly provides decision-making basis for the evaluation of the line network program, but alsolays the foundation for investment in urban rail transit, and it is one of the economicevaluation of rail transportation. However, there are some uncertainties in the current railtraffic passenger forecast in many domestic cities, sensitivity analysis of rail traffic passengerforecast are increasingly important. In this paper, it combines and analyzes the relevantpreliminary investigation data of Jilin rail transit network planning passenger forecast, andproposes the corresponding countermeasures and measures about traffic difference.Firstly, the paper analyzes the status quo of domestic and international rail passengerforecasts and presents the background, significance and major research of this study, andsystematically analyzes theory, procedures and modes of urban rail transit passenger forecast,summarizes trip generation, trip distribution, mode split and traffic assignment, summarizesparameters and predicted results involved in passenger traffic forecasts.Secondly, it introduces of the sensitivity analysis’s definition, purpose, classification andsteps, the paper elects influencing factors about urban rail transit passenger forecast in fourpassenger forecast stages models, influencing factors are divided into qualitative factors andquantitative factors. It uses AHP to evaluate qualitative factors and uses the chi-square testmethod to evaluate quantitative factors, extracts sensitivity factors.Thirdly, it introduces the process of Jilin rail transit network planning passenger forecastand analyzes sensitivity factors case by selecting fares, service levels and nature of the landuse.Finally, it selects the corresponding countermeasures for rail traffic passenger forecastdifferences.