Research On Passenger Flow Forecast Of Rail Transit Line Adjustment Planning In Tianjin

Urban rail transit is a kind of fast and safe and efficient mode of passengertransport, but because of the rail transit construction is costly, long fixed number ofyear of the planning, the characteristics of wide range, strong comprehensive,therefore, must be reasonable planning and objective scientific prediction work, toplay a proper role.Tianjin Urban Master Plan (2005-2020) has been officially approved by theState Council, under the guidance of the new general urban planning construction ofkey city recently undergone adjustments, some changes contents of the original urbanrail transit construction plan based on the occurrence of the Central Plains, so it isnecessary to timely correction and improvement. And Tianjin rail network passengerflow forecast work on all aspects of the rail transit and all stages and its important role,and can provide the basis and support for the adjustment of rail transit constructionplanning.Firstly, This paper introduces the basic model rail passenger forecasts predictpassenger and four-stage, and then outlines the social and economic status quo andtransport development in Tianjin, and the new adjustment scheme of the overallplanning in line. On the basis of the available information and data processing, thevarious socio-economic indicators were predictive analysis. Classic four-stage methodfor rail traffic passenger flow prediction, get line network traffic prediction result.Then analyze the prediction results each wire，the main section to adjust the line allday passenger traffic and other predictors. Finally, passenger flow forecast based onthe results obtained, the main effect of the adjustment to adjust the lines wereanalyzed.