Research On Passenger Demand Forecast And Sensitivity Analysis Of Rail Transit

As a fast,comfortable and high-volume passenger transport mode,urban rail transit construction has become an important direction to solve urban ground traffic congestion and improve the efficiency of urban public transport system.It occupies the backbone position in the passenger transportation to be obvious day by day.Firstly,analyzed the construction background of Jinan Metro Line R1 is comprehensively by means of surface,network,line and point.Defined the construction condition,project nature and function orientation of the line.And analyzed the general situation of the main passenger flow generating areas along the project and the road conditions along the line of project.Secondly,on the basis of population distribution,job distribution,vehicle ownership and socio-economic forecast,the "four-stage" traffic demand forecast method is used to carry out the research on rail transit passenger demand forecast.According to the operation characteristics of rail transit,the corresponding model is adopted in each stage to predict the passenger flow of rail transit.Subsequently,analyzed the passenger flow distribution characteristics of rail transit.Finally,based on the forecast of passenger demand of urban rail transit,according to the methods and models used in the prediction and the parameters involved in the model,the sensitive factors which have great influence on the passenger flow of rail transit are identified.The influencing factors were classified into internal factors and external factors,and the sensitivity of the main factors was analyzed.