Improved Four Stage Method In Urban Rail Transit Application Of Passenger Flow Prediction

Urban rail transit is a long-term,huge investment,comprehensive and extremely strong system project,therefore,it is necessary to carry out reasonable line network planning and scientific passenger flow prediction.The data of urban rail transit passenger flow prediction will provide judgment and decision-making basis for the construction of urban rail transit.Domestic passenger flow prediction method generally used method of four stages,but as a result of this method in urban rail transit based method and the mechanism study of passenger flow is not thorough,makes four stage method to predict traffic often differ with the actual traffic is bigger.In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction,the author on the basis of existing research,four stages combined with traditional method in urban rail transit passenger flow forecast is insufficient,the emphasis on the traditional traffic generated in four phases method and traffic distribution forecast is optimized to improve,and through the passenger flow forecast of changsha city rail transit line 1 to verify the predicted effect of improved four stage method.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)the theoretical basis and mathematical model of the traditional four-stage method from four stages of traffic generation,traffic distribution,traffic division and traffic distribution are introduced emphatically;The characteristics of different mathematical models in different stages are compared and analyzed,and the applicability of different prediction models is pointed out.(2)points out that the four stage method in traffic generation forecast does not consider mutual influence between traffic area and series of problems such as traffic service level of traffic impact,according to the nature of land use is proposed for traffic area division method,the new traffic generation forecast model is established.(3)in-depth analysis the traffic distribution stage characteristics of gravity model,the constraint conditions that the gravity model is given,and proposed the inside the village and the village between the traffic distribution model,the parameters of the improved model of effective calibration and inspection,prediction proved to improve the model prediction effect is better.(4)based on the analysis of the residents' travel characteristics of changsha city,the improved four-stage method was adopted to predict the passenger flow of changsha rail transit line 1.The prediction results are analyzed and the passenger flow characteristics of changsha rail transit line 1 are given.(5)the sensitivity of the passenger flow of changsha city rail transit line 1,the factors are studied,and on the basis of the selected properties of land use,the urban population scale,the ticket prices and rail transit and bus interchange on passenger flow forecast for sensitivity analysis.Passenger flow prediction plays an important role in all aspects of urban rail transit.Improvements on four stage method greatly improve the prediction precision of the urban rail transit passenger volume,to enhance the scientific decision of urban rail transit system,improve the anti-risk ability of the prediction is of great importance.