Scenarios Prediction For The Emissions Of SO₂,NO_x In The Year Of 2020 And 2030 In China Mainland Area

Recent years,China’s total energy consumption rising,because coal is the main energy consumption of China,consumption structure is unreasonable,high level of energy consumption and unreasonable economic growth mode,leading to emissions of major pollutants in many areas exceed environmental capacity,causing the water, air,soil, ecological and environmental quality of our country getting worse.In particular emission SO₂, NO_x and PM2.5etc pollutants on the environment caused serious pollution.An important part of environmental management is accurate predict of the total discharge of pollutants,forecast result is reliable evidence of formulate environmental impact mitigation policies and measures.Use scenario analysis to predict total pollutant,Not only fully thought about the possibility of changes in the external environment,but also can accurately analyze pollutant emissions under different development prospects in the future,to help decision makers make appropriate control measures.Based on the scenario analysis to predict the energy consumption under different scenarios in the year of 2020 and 2030 in China area,based on emission factors and removals of SO₂,NO_x in different sectors and fuel types to predict the emission of SO₂,NO_x under different scenarios in the year of 2020 and 2030 in China.The result shows that: the SO₂ emissions of basic energy and market scenario were 15.1459 million tons,15.2230 million tons and NO_x emissions were 10.8922 million tons,12.2395 million tons in the year of 2020 and 2030; the SO₂ emissions of policy energy and market scenario were 11.1449 million tons,9.5145 million tons and NO_x emissions were 8.5786 million tons,7.8188 million tons in the year of 2020 and 2030;the SO₂ emissions of strengthening policy energy and market management scenario were 8.3673 million tons,6.7575 million tons and NO_x emissions were 6.5829 million tons,5.4874 million tons in the year of 2020 and 2030.The calculation results show that the emission of SO₂,NO_x in basic energy and market scenario,policy energy and market scenario,strengthening policy energy and market management scenario gradually decrease;compared to the basic energy and market scenario, the SO₂ emissions of strengthening policy energy and market management scenario were reduced by 6.7786 million tons,8.4655 million tons and NO_x emissions were reduced by 4.3093 million tons,6.7521 million tons in the year of2020 and 2030. The sector of large SO₂,NO_x emissions are electricity,industry and transport sector.the most effective way to reduce the emission of pollutants is to strengthen the control of three sector about their emission of SO₂,NO_x. Under the common role of government and market management,three scenarios compared with each other,strengthening policy energy and market management scenario is the most accord with the future development trend.