Driving Factors Of Cultivated Land Change And Its Impact On Grain-production In Sichuan Province

Cultivated land is the most important material basis for human survivaland development, and is also the precious resources of national economic and socialdevelopment. With the rapid development of urbanization, the cultivated landconversion phenomenon is more serious than ever, At present, the problems ofreduction of cultivated quantity and cultivated land quality deterioration have existedin Sichuan province.“Food can’t product if the cultivated land no longer exists”, as themost basic factor for food production, the cultivated land plays a vital role in thesuccess of food security.“No land no production and no food no stability.” The grainproblem is a strategic issue of social stability and economic development. In the faceof the severe world grain situation, as a major grain-producing province, Sichuanshould eagerly responded to the policy of “stick to1.8billion mu cultivated land redline”, strengthen the cultivated land protection, and improve the comprehensive grainproductivity continuously so that it could ensure the stability of food production andeconomic development.This paper is divided into four chapters and expounds the basic situation ofcultivated land protection and food production in Sichuan province, that is, the quantityand quality of cultivated land decreased year by year, the high and stable grainproduction land is in low proportion, but the low and middle grain production land arein large proportion, the high quality cultivated land reserve resources are scarce, theland pollution and non-agriculturalization of cultivated land trend aggravates, and soon.This paper systematically analyses the correlation factors of cultivated land areaschange in Sichuan province, and summarizes the significant influence on quantitychange of cultivated land by economic factor, agricultural technical progress factor, population factor and the relationship between them. Meanwhile, this paper analysesthe area change trend of cultivated land of Sichuan province in recent ten years, Predictthe total arable land in the province over the next decade and draws a conclusion thatthe status quo of cultivated land is in deep pressure and there is a certain risk in foodsupply and demand in Sichuan province by using the minimum per capita cultivatedland pressure model and Grey Forecasting. Basing on above, this paper proposes themeasures and suggestions to ensure sustainable utilization of cultivated land andstabilization of food production in Sichuan province from the aspects of cultivated landprotection, increasing the input in agriculture, population control and so on.