Research On The Multi-scale Cultivated Land Change And Cultivated Land Prewarning Information System

Study on land use/land cover change (LUCC) is important to know global environment change. So IGBP and IHDP set up common core plan -LUCC in 1995. LUCC has been foreland and hot spot of global change study. There is much study about LUCC in here and overseas. Although study on LUCC have taken much progress in our country, it still is preliminary stage. Many aspect should been more deepened. Those primarily include LUCC theory, data standardize , driving forces of mechanism, function of some indirect factors, study on different scale and small sale, model about LUCC ,the relation between LUCC, global change and Sustainability development.In this paper, change of the cultivated land and driving forces in south of Hubei province poor mound region is studied, the cultivated land Sustainability of Xianing city is be evaluated and a new cultivated land dynamic prewarning model is set up. The main research contents of the dissertation are as below:1 Study on evolve history of cultivated land and basic theory for LUCC. The evolve history of cultivated land includes four stages which are the pick and hunt civilization, agriculture civilization ,industry civilization and post-industry civilization .The paper analyzes their characteristic and their impact on nature. Finally, theory base of LUCC is discussed.2 The application of Geography Information System(GIS) , Remote Sensing(RS)and Global Position System (GPS)on cultivated land change study. GIS,RS and GPS is an important tool for cultivated land change study. There are important on cultivated land date base establishment, cultivated land change simulation and cultivated land management etc.3 Study on cultivated land change for Xianning city in south of Hubei province with cycle time model , cultivated Land dynamic degree model , cultivated land index model, cultivated land center of gravity model. The Cultivated Land area change is divided two stages. In first stage ,the Cultivated Land area quickly enlarge form 1949 to 1962. In second stage , The Cultivated Land area have been decreased after 1962. The cultivated Land dynamic degree in the north and southwest of Xianning city where is mound and plain is bigger than one in southeast of Xianning city where is mountain region. The cultivated land center of gravity moves about 822m to southeast of Xianning city form 1985 to 2000. The economy center of gravity and Population center of gravity separately move 3392m and 1065m to northeast of Xianning city.4 Three different scale district are selected for analyzing the difference of driving forces of cultivated Land change. Then driving forces are found byprincipal component analysis. The result indicates that the growth of population, economic development , change of agriculture structure and land policy and are dominical factors for change of cultivated land in three different district. The difference of cultivated Land change driving forces among three different scale district is that industry and fishery factors inequality drive cultivated Land change.5 Study on driving forces of cultivated Land change about small scale district. There is much study on Land use and land cover change (LUCC)on macro and mid- scale district in our country. Fewer study on small scale district. The towns of Xianan county are selected as unit of study. Cultivated Land dynamic degree is bigger in northwest of Xianan county where is plain and periphery of city. There are many factors which affect change of cultivated land, and the change process . The data obtaining form statistical sources and map is used to analyze the difference of cultivated Land change. The result indicates that the population density, the distance from geometry central point of town to Xianan city, the distance from geometry central point of town to Jingguang railway or 107 highway, and garden plot density are dominical factors for change of cultivated land.6 Assessment of cultivated land Sustainability for Xianning.cultivated land resource is been thank as a basic resource of agriculture production.Assessment of cultivated land Sustainability use is the basis mean of cultivated land Sustainability and good for land Sustainability protection and plan. Assessment of cultivated land Sustainability use of principle and method is analyzed. An index system for south Hubei province assessment of cultivated land Sustainability use is set up and south Hubei province assessment of cultivated land Sustainability use forml995to2000 is assessed. Some suggestion is given for south Hubei province assessment of cultivated land Sustainability use.7 Change and prediction of cultivated land pressure index in Xianning city. Rapid industrialization and urbanization lead the scarce cultivated land resources to more crises. So cultivated land conservation is necessary for our country. In this paper the concept of minimum area per capita of cultivated land and cultivated land pressure index is put forward as a new insight into the optimization of cultivated land resource allocation for policy making, minimum area per capita of cultivated land and cultivated land pressure index for Xianning city are calculated form 1949 to 2000. The result illustrate that cultivated land pressure index in Xianning city have been descended. Although cultivated land pressure index of Xianning city in 2000 is smaller than 1, it will is bigger than 1 in fifteen years. As a result, cultivated land pressure index can be relieved by relying on the progress science and technology to improve the output of cultivated land. At the same, making rational use of cultivated land,and putting the protection of cultivated land into reality are good ways to relieve the cultivated land pressure.8 Study on cultivated land dynamic prewarning model. A cultivated land dynamic prewarning model on basis of the cultivated land classifying work is put forward in this paper. It not only considers cultivated land area quantity change, but also consults cultivated land dynamic quality change. Form the dynamic prewarning model, the cultivated land alarming degree which reflects the safeguard ability is calculated .Some measures will been adopted on the cultivated land alarming degree .A case is given about the model, the cultivated land productivity of Xianan county in 2000 is 41873960. So, in2010, the cultivated land productivity of Xianan county should reach into 49149656 in order to dynamic balance maintenance of Xianan cultivated land. Finally,a preliminary scheme of cultivated land dynamic prewarning information system is designed.