Research Of Housing Demand In Wuhan,Based On ELES Model

A Scientific judgment for the housing demand is conductive to the progress of the real estate market.The paper focuses on 2016 heating housing market in Wuhan,capital city of Hubei province.By an empirical analysis of the housing demand structure and purchasing behavior of the Wuhan residents,the author tries to find out demand factors behind the hiking price and ever-growing purchasing enthusiasm so as to provide reference for the market regulation.On the basis of ELES(extend linear expenditure system)model,the paper divides consumer consumption into the following two stages.The basic daily expense,belonging to rigid demand,is neutral for price.The second stage is excess consumption.After deducting the daily expenses from disposal residential income,the residual income may be freely saved or consumed in accordance with individual preference.Therefore,resident housing consumption is divided into basic housing consumption and excess housing consumption.By SPSS23.0,marginal propensity of consume for Wuhan residents is worked out through the parameters evaluation of the different expenditure data.Meanwhile,basic housing demand,basic non-housing demand and excess demand are all worked out by simultaneous resident consumption linear equations.Starting from the basic housing demand and excess housing demand,the paper makes a quantitative analysis on the characteristics of housing demand for the residents in Wuhan.From the demand structure,the proportion of basic housing demand and the proportion of excess housing demand all float around 50%,demonstrating a dynamic equilibrium.For low-income families,basic housing demand account for a great part,while for those high-income ones,excess housing demand take the dominant place.Generally,excess housing demand grows significantly.The analysis of demand behavior signals that from low-income families to high-income ones,the income or price elasticity of housing demand increase gradually,while the cross elasticity gradual decrease.The purchasing power of high-income families is vigorous,whilst of the lower-income families is weak,demonstrating obvious differences as to housing purchasing power.This paper consists of 6 chapters.Chapter 1,the introduction part,mainly deals with research background,research region,significance,literature review,research purpose,content and method.Chapter 2 is the definition part.On the basis of multiple consumption theories in microeconomics,it analyzes concepts such as housing demand,demand structure,demand elasticity,housing purchasing power and housing equity.Chapter 3 serves as the model derivation part,which mainly introduces the origination of ELES model,derivation of the housing consumption model,general condition of the research area as well as the data source.Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 are the empirical research parts.Chapter 4 analyzes structural characteristics of housing demand,including tendency for housing consumption of the residual income,housing demand structure coefficient,expenditure coefficient and difference coefficient.Chapter 5 focuses on the housing demand behavior,which covers income elasticity of housing demand,price elasticity,cross elasticity and the maximum housing consumption capacity.Chapter 6,the conclusion part,reviews the research process of the paper.In this part,the author makes prospect for relevant research in this field and offers four policy recommendations from such perspectives as “enhancing regulation,increasing supply,vitalizing market and fostering capacity”.