Housing Investment Demand To Measure The Contribution Of Price Changes

Since 2004,the real estate industry has developed rapidly in our country,commodity housing price has experienced a period of rapid growth,prompting the government and academia extensive discussions on the real estate bubble.Why prices increased rapidly,one of the reasons caused by rapid urbanization that just need a large number of growth,the second reason is breeding ground for the rising price of housing investment demand,because the housing is not only the necessaries of life,or an asset to the value.But the housing investment demand exactly how much contribution is in the process of rising prices,there is no literature measurement,there is only qualitative analysis,some people think that investment demand has not been constituted the main cause of rising prices,some people think that is one of the main reasons.This article will empirically measure the rate of contribution of housing investment demand to housing price,provide a reference for related department.To measure housing investment demand’s contribution to the rising prices,the first thing to measure housing investment demand,and then measure the demand for housing prices,at last,we will get the influence of investment demand impact on prices.Investment demand for housing measure has not been a study of the literature from a macro perspective,this article capture housing investment is the key feature of housing as assets,I will use the substitution degree of housing and other assets as indicators of housing investment intensity,and regard housing and other assets in ourselves yield changes of substitution effect as indicators of housing investment demand,to measure the housing investment.Housing investment demand measure is done in the second chapter,first set up three assets include savings,stocks and housing of the household sector asset demand system,and then measure the housing investment demand based on the estimated results of the asset demand system.The third chapter through build and estimate housing price influence factor model,estimate the demand for housing for house prices influence coefficient,by using the influence coefficient and housing investment demand,the combination of design calculation formula of housing investment demand contribution to rising prices,finally measure the contribution of housing investment demand for housing price.This chapter first has carried on the theoretical analysis to the influence factors of housing price.Considering the house prices of spatial correlation,model forms adopted the spatial panel model.In model building and estimate,solved the housing demand as endogenous problems with prices of the variables.The main conclusions of this paper is: first,China’s commodity residential house has showed investment properties.The substitution elasticity of commodity residential house and stock is bigger than that of commodity residential house and deposit,that is to say,household sector think commodity housing is similar to stock Commodity residential house is with investment properties.Second,the commodity housing investment demand in China’s contribution to the rising prices is sometimes is positive or negative.House prices rose faster,the greater the demand for investment’s contribution to the rising prices.In 2006 and 2007,stock prices skyrocketed,the housing investment demand is negative,that is part of the housing investment flew to the stock market,the stage of housing investment demand’s contribution to the rising prices was negative.When house prices rise slowly,the housing investment demand is negative,indicating that some housing investment funds have been evacuated,the housing investment demand is negative contribution to rising prices.Third,in the spatial distribution of the commercial residential house price level has certain characteristics of the space effect.Fourth,in addition to the space factors,different levels of regional economic development imbalance in our country,also can cause the commodity residential house price difference.Finally,mainly from the perspective of tax policy suggestions are given.