Study On The Dynamic Evolution And Guarantee Mechanism Of Soybean Supply And Demand Balance In China

The balance of supply and demand for soybeans is an important issue for China’s food security.Uncertainty in international markets,uncertainty about the development of public health events and the state of domestic resource constraints have increased the vulnerability of soybean supply,while the advancement of urbanization,the continued development of animal husbandry and the improvement of people’s living standards have led to an increasing demand for soybeans.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the dynamic evolution characteristics of China’s soybean supply and demand balance,to reasonably construct a system of factors influencing the soybean supply and demand balance,to explore the effective guarantee mechanism of China’s soybean supply and demand balance,and to put forward reasonable policy recommendations accordingly.This paper focuses on the characteristics of the dynamic evolution of the soybean supply and demand balance,the mechanism of the dynamic evolution and the establishment of a soybean supply and demand balance guarantee mechanism based on the forecast results,taking into account the two major domestic and international markets.Firstly,the dynamic evolution characteristics of the three dimensions of China’s soybean supply and demand balance,quality-grade balance and regional balance are analyzed in depth using comparative analysis of production and demand,consumption grade criteria and comparative advantage theory in turn;Secondly,the C-D production function model,grey correlation analysis,correlation analysis and soybean import demand model based on unconstrained error correction and bounded cointegration are used to empirically analyze the factors influencing domestic production and supply,domestic consumption and demand,and international import trade of soybean in China respectively;Thirdly,based on the system of factors influencing the supply and demand balance of soybeans constructed by mechanism analysis,a grey system forecast,Holt index smoothing model and combined forecast model are used to forecast and analyze the balance trend of China’s soybean market in the next ten years in three dimensions: total supply and demand,quality grade and region;Finally,make full use of the two domestic and international markets and two resources,and explore a mechanism for securing a medium-to long-term supply and demand balance for soybeans in China from the perspectives of domestic production,international imports and consumer demand.The study concluded the following:(1)at this stage and even in the medium to long term,the domestic market alone cannot fully meet the balance of soybean supply and demand;(2)the gap between soybean production and demand is mainly reflected in the demand for feed grain and most industrial grain;(3)the layout of soybean production does not match well with the resource endowment of the livestock industry,and the contradictions in the structural separation of the farming industry are prominent;(4)the sown area,material service inputs,labor inputs and the increase in the relative prices of international and domestic soybeans promote the supply and demand of soybeans to a balanced state,while the application of soybean fertilizer and the increase in the level of national income make the supply and demand of soybeans far from a balanced state.In view of the above research results,this paper co-ordinates the two domestic and international markets and two resources,and proposes the establishment of mechanisms such as hiding grain in the land,hiding grain in technology,diversifying channels and interactive multilateralization to guarantee the medium and long-term supply and demand balance in China’s soybean market.This paper responds positively to the need to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern in which the "two cycles" promote each other,and expands the existing theories in the field of soybean supply and demand balance and food security,helping to rationalize and optimize the allocation of soybean production based on national consumption demand and resource conditions,and providing a practical basis for the establishment of a soybean supply and demand balance guarantee mechanism based on two markets and two resources.It provides a practical basis for the establishment of a mechanism to guarantee the supply and demand balance of soybean based on two markets and two resources.