Study On The Food Security Issue Of Jilin Provience

Jilin Province is the major grain-producing areas and the important commodity grain base of China. It has made great contributions to solve food and clothing problem of people, to protect the national food security and to develop the national economy. The current agricultural prices results in China's growing inflationary pressure, it has a serious impact on sustained, rapid and healthy development of economy. Food security of Jilin Province is on the so-called mid-level, functioning as a bridge to undertake national macro-level food security and personal micro-level food security. Research on provincial food security issues, particularly on which of major grain-producing areas,is of practical significance to protect national food security.Based on the definition of food, the food crisis, and the connotation and extension of food crisis, and also in the light of the definition of food security which given by world organizations and domestic and foreign scholars, this paper defines the domain of food security within the provincial area, and then gives further choices and constructions on food security subsystem and indicator system. The optimal goal of food security is to achieve the balance between grain supply and demand. Supply, demand, market and stock, these four sub-systems constitute a major regional balance within the food system. The prerequisite for achieving balance between supply and demand, and food security is that the grain supply must be ample, and the capacity of grain production must be enough to meet consumer's demand for food. Only the ample production of food being guaranteed, can the further pursuit of quality and safety and ecological security be achieved.This paper studies the issue of food security of Jilin Province from two subsystems of the grain supply and demand, namely, the total grain output and the demand inside. With the specific circumstances of Jilin Province, this paper analyzes the grain output in Jilin Province and its volatility characteristics since the reform and opening up, and selects the main factors which have important impacts on the sown area of grain and grain yield. On the one hand, three variables which affected the sown area notably, naming CA,IGA and ICA, could be calculated by linear regression, and also the contribution rate of the sown area of grain can be calculated, so that the forecasting model of the sown area of grain could be constructed based on the results calculated. On the other hand, the forecast model of grain yield could be built basing on the three variables PTM,PFER,PDA and their contribution rate which are also calculated by linear regression. To predict the grain output of Jilin Province of 2010, 2015, 2020 by the model established, the results were 35.5166 million tons, 37.2965 million tons and 39.3904 million tons.Since the 1980s, the Urbanization of Jilin Province has developed faster and faster. Until 1995 the proportion of non-agricultural population increased nearly 10 percentage points, from 32.7 percent to 42.3 percent. The income gap between urban and rural residents widened gradually. The rates of per real disposable income of urban residents and per actual net income of rural residents are increased from 0.98:1 of 1983 to 2.6:1 of 2004.As the accelerating of urbanization and the widening gap between urban-rural income levels, the issue of the changes of preferences between food consumption and the structure of food are inevitable. In order to measure how urbanization and income have impacts on food consumption, these two factors should be taken into account in forecast model of food needs, and should be reflected in the use of mathematical functions. Combined with urbanization and increase of income levels, this paper predicts food consumption by classification. According to numerical analysis predicted that future food demand trends will be: the proportion of indirect rations consumption of Jilin Province will increase in the future, and the proportion of rations consumption and other grain share will decline. So, in The future the principal contradiction of the food of Jilin Province will be the demand for feed grain.Finally, this paper analyzes the future food supply and demand situation and trends of Jilin Province from the perspective of supply and demand balance. The conclusion comes to: the share of rations of Jilin Province will decline in the future, the proportion of feed grain will rise faster. the proportion of feed grain will exceed the proportion of food rations before the year 2015, and then the gap between the two will expand gradually;Other grains share the largest proportion, and will keep a steady growth. Therefore, the demand for grain mainly reflected in the rapid increase of the demand for feed grain, and the growth of other grain demand in the course of industrialization. With the accelerated process of industrialization, the improvement of people's income level,some problems arise. On the one hand, total grain demand in the proportion of the total grain output grows rapidly, the gap between production and demand declines in the proportion very fast, these issues of food security are not optimistic;On the other hand, we should see that accompanies with the growth of total grain demand, the total grain output also grows rapidly, so the gap of production and demand expand gradually. The average annual increase of gap of production-demand in forecast period of Jilin Province is 3.6 million tons, which can meet the demand of some of the feed processing industry, and the demand of food processing capacity added by industry. This provides a solid material foundation to ensure the future needs of grain of Jilin Province and the country.