| As food security has always been a major strategic issue related to economic development,social stability and national security,it is very crucial to ensure food security for China to maintain sustainable economic and social development in the future.Soybean has the dual attributes of oil crops and food crops.As one of high-protein,low-calorie food,Soybean can meet the people’s growing needs for a better life.And it has a important position in national food security.At present,due to the serious insufficiency of soybean supply in China,we mainly rely on import to meet the high demand for soybean.As the United States is one of the main sources of China’s soybean import,soybean products have become a hot spot in the Sino-US trade game with the intensification of Sino-US trade frictions.In the case of limited import substitution space and low domestic soybean production and inventory,it is of great theoretical significance and practical value to conduct in-depth research and explore the long-term plan on the supply-demand balance of domestic soybean.This paper constructs and analyzes the model of domestic medium and long-term soybean production time series characteristics,spatial layout changes,soybean consumption structure and trend,and world soybean production and trade.Then it deeply explores the evolution and historical laws of China’s soybean production,consumption and trade.By conducting empirical research on China’s soybean production,consumption and world soybean production,some reasonable predictions about the balance between supply and demand of soybeans in China are made.The main research contents and viewpoints are as follows:1.The basic theory of supply and demand balance is summarized,and the current situation of soybean supply and demand in China and the world is analyzed.Furthermore,it expounds the concept,connotation and basic characteristics of the balance of supply and demand,and establishes the theoretical model and regulation principle of the balance of supply and demand.Due to the large population base and the increasing consumption of soybean food,oil and protein,the total consumption of soybean has exceeded 100 million tons in recent years,while the production of domestic soybean is only more than 10 million tons.Meanwhile,for the soybean industry in China,more and more problems arise as for high planting cost,low output and weak modernization,as well as high foreign dependence and insufficient domestic production supply.However,imports mainly count on the United States,Brazil and Argentina,which account for more than 4 / 5 of the world’s total soybean production.The following problems such as the concentration of imports,the prevalence of trade protectionism and anti globalization seriously threaten the sustainable development of domestic soybean industry,and become the focus and difficulty of soybean risk prevention and control.2.It studies and analyzes the spatial-temporal and productivity changes of domestic soybean supply by using the methods of Empirical mode decomposition(EMD),global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis and barycenter model.The empirical mode decomposition(EMD)method was used to decompose the signal on the existing time scale characteristics,and the soybean yield fluctuation index was constructed according to the intrinsic mode function(IMF)to reveal the relationship between soybean yield fluctuation and the influencing factors in China.This paper analyzes the spatial autocorrelation and agglomeration of soybean production in all provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 1978 to 2018.By using the spatial econometric analysis method,the gravity center model is established to directly express the geographical spatial distribution characteristics of soybean,and to describe the development layout of soybean gravity center deviation.Through the time and space two-dimensional scale,quantitative and qualitative combination,to explore the production and planting law of soybean.3.The consumption structure and demand trend of soybeans in China is comprehensively explored.This paper elaborates on the basic laws of food consumption,the consumption habits and consumption trends of major countries in the world,the consumption structure and consumption habits of Chinese residents.Through data comparison and comparative analysis,it shows that the consumption of soybeans by Chinese residents is far from saturated.With the improvement of economic level and the improvement of quality of life,people’s dependence on meat food is aggravated,and the demand for soybeans will rise significantly.4.The empirical and predictive analysis on the impact of soybean supply and demand balance in China is made.Firstly,the factors,especially the leading factors of China’s soybean supply are analyzed in depth,including sown area,price factors,competitive crop yields,imported soybeans,population base,income level,soybean import prices,world soybean production,beef and mutton production,etc.Secondly,the model was constructed to test the supply and demand mechanism of soybeans;This paper analyzes the Sino-US trade friction and the world soybean trade pattern,the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s soybean trade,the changes in the supply and demand balance of soybeans in China and possible risks.Using the combined forecasting of the Box-Jenkins method and the grey model to analyze the soybean production and future trends in China and the world,the study shows the change of total soybean production,planting area and yield in China and the world from 1964 to 2024,and generally believes that there are greater risks in the balance of soybean supply and demand in China.5.The strategic choice of soybean industry development in China and the policy suggestions to strengthen industrial security are discussed.Firstly,we should attach great importance to the balance of soybean supply and demand,establish a mechanism for the balance of soybean supply and demand and a coordinated regulation and control management agency,improve the management capacity of regulatory agencies,and establish a corresponding early warning system.Secondly to stabilize the domestic supply capacity of soybeans.By balancing "grain oriented" and "soybean self-sufficiency",it is most important to increasing scientific research investment and increasing soybean yield per unit area on the basis of studying the expansion of cultivated land resources and improving the utilization efficiency of existing cultivated land.increase industrial financial support;Thirdly,to increase the ability to utilize international resources,by integrating a platform for capital,technology,resource utilization,and agricultural negotiations,effectively utilize foreign resources,effectively resolve international risks,and promote the development of the soybean industry and scientific and technological progress.Fourthly,to improve the balance capacity of the soybean market,strengthen the construction of the soybean safety risk management system,the construction of soybean reserves and its regulation,the construction of the soybean logistics system and its circulation capacity,and the safety and supply chain level of soybeans.Fifthly,we should try to strengthen the construction of industrial service capacity,optimize the credit structure,increase financial support,create a chain group effect,build an good industrial ecosystem,make good use of guidance strategies,reduce consumption demand,develop multilateral trade and ensure industrial safety.Compared with other related studies,this paper has the following innovations:(1)The theoretical model of multi-market local equilibrium under open conditions is constructed.Based on equilibrium price theory,rational expectation theory and price transmission theory,considering the trade friction of agricultural products and the uncertainty of international political economy,a multi-dimensional market supply and demand balance model is constructed.(2)The spatial distribution and capacity change of China’s soybean supply are accurately measured.In this paper,we use mathematical models and scientific calculation methods to analyze the timing characteristics,spatial differentiation characteristics,and spatial pattern evolution of soybeans,so as to explore the production rules of soybeans.(3)Predict the balance of soybean supply and demand scientifically by using.innovative measurement methods Spatial autocorrelation analysis,center of gravity model,principal component analysis,gray correlation,ARIMA,gray theory and other methods,especially the combined prediction analysis of Box-Jenkins method and gray model,improved the prediction accuracy and reliability of the supply and demand relationship of soybean market.(4)Make unique suggestions for improving the balance capacity of the soybean market.Establish and improve a multi-level soybean risk management system suitable for China’s current national conditions,through optimizing the storage structure of Chinese soybeans,accurately determining the reasonable size of central and local soybean reserves,increasing support for the construction of grain transportation systems,accelerating the improvement of soybean safety and supply chain level,and further promoting the structural reform of the grain supply side to develop in depth to enhance the information acquisition ability and counterattack ability of international soybean supply. |
