Research On Safety Evaluation Of Urban Heating Supplying System And Computer Simulation

The number of heating system accident has risen these several years. The failures and eventsof heat-exchange station, heat pipeline, heat consumers affect the safety and reliability of thewhole heating system. It is also significant to the security of people’s life and property. Themain method to solve the problem of heating security is safety evaluation and computersimulation. For these reasons, we have a research on heating supplying system in recent yearsfrom the aspects of the development of heating system, the urban risk assessment, thereliability of heating system. We focus on the feasibility of the system dynamics in heatingsystem model. It pays attention to the inner structures and causal relationship between thefactors of a system. Then, it helps us find the best way to solve the problems. Meanwhile, ithas advantages when we do not have enough data and the relationship between the factors iscomplicated that it is difficult to quantify them clearly. In this paper, we set up the safetyevaluation model of heating system by using the method of system dynamics.We had a survey on heating supplying system in Beijing and expounded the situation ofheating security in there. Then, we collected accident cases of the heating system and analysesthe reason of them from the respects of bombing, burst and water hammer in heating source,destruction, corrosion and management in heating pipeline and pipe leakage bankrupt andradiator damage in heat consumers. We summarized the main security factors of the heatingsupplying system and set up the hierarchical model of risk evaluation in heating system byusing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Then, we used MATLAB software to calculatethe weights of risk factors at all levels set and explained the methods and principles of thejudgments we got in the system.AnyLogic software can be used to set up a model in several methods and it based on thenewest design of the complicated system. This paper analyzes the casual relationship betweenfactors and finishes the graph of it. We set up safety assessment model of heating supplyingsystem which including heat-exchange station, heat pipeline, heat consumers by using SD inAnyLogic. We use dynamic scores to describe the variation of each part of factors andpredicted the safety trend in the future of the heating system. Then, we analyzes thesimulation results to find optimized control strategy of the problem. It can be proved that thevalue of the variables and parameters in heating system simulation experiments we set in thisarticle are practicable. They follow up with the requirements of the practical engineering.