| Cultivated land resource is the essence of land resources, is animportant material basis for human survival and development. Alongwith our country industrialization, city to speed up the process, thequantity of cultivated land decreased, non-agricultural constructionland occupation of cultivated land, the ecological environmentdestruction phenomenon has become increasingly prominent. Atpresent, correctly handle the relationship between population--cultivated land--Grain--environment, to promote sustainableeconomic and social development has become one of the researchdirections of different scholars. On population-farmland-grain-environment relationship, cultivated land resources in a decisiveposition, therefore, scientific and reasonable from the cultivatedland quantity, quality and spatial distribution of it has importantpractical significance to study on the optimal allocation of LandResource.This paper takes Anze County of Linfen city as the researchobject, first on the food security and ecological environment werecarried out comprehensive evaluation, evaluating the safety of food is a1990-2008cultivated land area,19population, the total grainoutput, multiple cropping index and other statistical data as thefoundation, proposed by Professor Cai Yunlong of the " minimumarea per capita and the pressure index of cultivated land " model ofevaluation, evaluation of ecological environment factors are mainlyselected soil erosion and ecological diversity of two indicators; thefood safety law based on Evaluation of the present situation and themethod of two kinds of methods to predict the quantity of cultivatedland in Anze County in2020, obtains the reasonable prediction valuerange, then with the help of ArcGIS drawing software, based on thepresent status of cultivated land resources in Anze County in2008map, considering various factors, forecast the2020landdistribution layer, and cultivated land area from the attribute table,the prediction result is more scientific, reasonable; the predictionof cultivated land resources land resources in all the towns in2020from the aspects of quantity, quality and the spatial distribution andthe base year of2008were analyzed.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1) by using the "minimum per capita cultivated land and cultivated land pressureindex model", obtains the Anze County1990-2008and19years inthe7year of cultivated land pressure index less than1, show thatthe cultivated land resources less pressure, grain production andcultivated land pressure index; the other12years were greater than1, show that the cultivated land resources pressure, foodproduction is not safe, in a dangerous state, namely the cultivatedland resources in Anze county has a certain pressure, the problemof food security should be paid enough attention to.(2) through a comprehensive evaluation of two aspects of diversity on soilerosion and ecological system, it is concluded that the wholeecological environment of Anze County in good condition, thevegetation coverage is high, good soil and water conservation,ecosystem types, ecological quality is basically in good condition,but in the future with the rapid development of economy, theoriginal ecological environment is destroyed, which affected thefood security, ecological environmental problems can not beignored.(3) the food security of land tenure in predictive value was14451.12hectares based on reservation method, the amount ofcultivated land is14809.68hectares based on predictive value, twocomprehensive prediction method, to determine the amount ofcultivated land in Anze county. With the help of ArcGIS software,finally from the farming area of cultivated land acquisition maplayer is14690.40hectares, the method of predicted result isscientific and reasonable, more practical.(4) prediction ofcultivated land in2020Anze county area than the base year netdecrease of640.09hectares of arable land, the reduction of theareas have Fu Cheng,He Chuan,Tang Cheng and Gi Shi, Tang Chengof cultivated land area decrease is maximum; the increased of theareas have MA BI, Du Cun and Liang Ma,Liang Ma of cultivated landarea increased is maximum. |