Analysis And Forecast On The Consumption Structure Of Shanxi Rural Residents

In recent years, with the sustained and rapid development of social economy, China hasbecome the second largest economy in the world, but we should also be aware of that China’seconomic growth rate has slowed down, the economic development has encountered thebottleneck, so the economy has reach a node to reform necessarily, and now the consumptionis the driving force to promote the economic development，so analysising and optimizing theconsumption structure, promoting the upgrading of the consumption structure has importantsignificance in promoting China’s economic development, optimization and upgrading of theconsumption structure can greatly promote the growth of consumer demand, while China is alarge agricultural country with large rural population, consumption structure upgradedebugging should focus on rural areas. Shanxi is economically underdeveloped inlandprovince, and rural residents account for a large proportion of the provinces in China, sincethe reform and opening up, the level of consumption of rural residents in Shanxi has beensignificantly improved, but we should see that the general consumption level of the Shanxirural residents at present is still low, it still has greater distance with the full construction ofwell-off society requires which the eighteen reported. By the eighteenth big east wind, it is thestrong power that promoting the upgrading of the consumption structure of Shanxi ruralresidents and expanding domestic demand to promote economic development to promote thedevelopment of rural economy in Shanxi by speeding up the urbanization speed, so theacceleration of the urbanization construction, strengthen the agricultural policy, deepening rich peasants increase potential consumer demand into real effective demand dynamics, forShanxi improve the living level of rural residents, and promote the healthy development of theShanxi economy, accelerate Shanxi fully completed significant step of comparatively well-offsociety, the realistic problem that is party and government leaders and the community ofcommon concern.Based on the rural residents in Shanxi Province as the research object, with theconsumption structure as the starting point,taking consuming economic theory for guidance,this paper makes analysis of Shanxi rural residents’ consumption structure with comparingwith the consumption structure of the urban residents in Shanxi province and the ruralresidents in the whole country through the ELES extended linear expenditure system，andmakes the forecast of the changes on the consumption structure of rural residents in Shanxiprovince from2012to2016using the grey forecasting method, and puts forward to thecountermeasure and suggestion to optimize the consumption structure of rural residents inShanxi based on the conclusion of the study.