A Research On Consumption Structure Of Urban Residents In Central Region Based On ELES Model Of Durable Income

The 20th Party Congress report points out that “efforts are being made to expand domestic demand and enhance the fundamental role of consumption in economic development”,which indicates that promoting consumption is an important path and driving force for current economic development.As a bridge between the east and the west,the central region is indispensable for economic development,but compared to the priority development of the eastern region and the great development of the western region,the central region has received significantly less policy support,while unexpected events such as the New Crown epidemic have had a great impact on residents’ consumption capacity.Therefore,analysing the consumption structure of urban residents in the central region and proposing consumption promotion policies are urgent focal points for promoting economic development.In view of this,this thesis uses the durable income ELES model to analyse the current situation of the consumption structure of urban residents in the central region,and predicts the consumption expenditure of urban residents through a grey-Markov model to provide a theoretical basis for the government to introduce policies to promote consumption.The main research work is as follows:(1)The data on the income and consumption of urban residents in the central region from 2001 to 2020 were collected and collated,and the residents’ living conditions were analyzed statically using income and expenditure,average propensity to consume and the Engel coefficient,while the residents’ consumption structure was analyzed dynamically using the total degree of change in consumption structure and the entropy value of consumption diversification.The results show that the residents’ consumption structure was in a state of continuous upgrading and optimisation from 2001 to 2019,but the downgrading of the consumption structure was obvious in 2020.The Engel coefficient shows that the quality of life of residents has been improving during 2001-2019,but significantly declining in 2020.(2)The traditional ELES model lacks to take into account the impact of enduring income.This thesis applies the the durable income ELES model to study the consumption levels of urban residents in the central region,taking into account unexpected events such as the New Crown epidemic,and empirically analyses the consumption structure of urban residents through indicators such as marginal propensity to consume and elasticity of demand.The results show that from 2001 to 2019,urban residents will give priority to the consumption of transportation and communication and housing when their income increases,while in 2020,due to the impact of the new crown,urban residents’ consumption expenditure on survival-oriented goods such as healthcare and food and clothing rises significantly,and their consumption expenditure on enjoyment and development-oriented goods such as education,culture and entertainment,and household furnishings decreases significantly.(3)Based on the 2001-2019 data of urban residents’ consumption expenditure in the central region,a grey-Markov model is used to forecast urban residents’ consumption expenditure and development trends for the period 2021-2025.The forecast shows that in 2021-2025,food is still the key commodity considered by urban residents,housing is changing from subsistence consumption to enjoyment consumption,the quality of life of residents is improving and the consumption structure is being optimised.However,influenced by the new crown,in 2021-2022,urban residents actually spent more on survival-oriented goods such as food and clothing,and less on enjoyment and development-oriented goods such as housing,education,culture and entertainment.The above results suggest that the government should take into full consideration factors such as unexpected events when introducing consumption policies.