Influencing Factors And Breakpoint Reseach Of Chinese Energy Consumption Based On Bayesian Inference

The energy has the important strategic status in our country economy and the social development. Therefore, strengthens the correlation research which expends to the economical growth and the energy has the greatly strengthened practical significance. China is currently in the stage of economic transition, coupled with the external impact of the international economic situation, likely to cause structural changes in the time series of economic variables, makes our economic study on the sequences of more complex. If ignoring actual mutations in the sequence points, then not only makes the modeling of a sequence of lower accuracy, but it also might produce incorrect results that we study the economic significance of lost reality. Therefore, properly judge whether there are mutations in the sequence point, and join the appropriate mutation point to the model to achieve the purpose of correction model has an important theoretical significance and applied value.This article was in has referred to in the massive domestic and foreign correlation literature foundation, has introduced the point of discontinuity inspection procedure which inferred based on Bayes. Infers with Bayes examines the point of discontinuity to have very many merits, thus for example, can join the apriori information, the enhancement estimate precision, the thought simple, can obtain the point of discontinuity probability distribution more profound understanding point of discontinuity and so on. In the introduction the point of discontinuity inspection procedure which infers after Bayes, this article applies it in our country energy consumption pattern point of discontinuity question real diagnosis research. At the same time, our country energy resources massively are consumed as a result of the state economy rapid development, but the energy resources total quantity is rich the average per person energy resources possessive amount quite to be actually low, moreover our country resources distribution is imbalanced, thus carries on the analysis to our country’s energy question to have the vital significance. Moreover, our country "Twelve-Five" the plan summary has pointed out the next several year essential target:GDP yearly average grows7%, the urbanization rate enhancement4%, the unit GDP energy consumption reduces16%.Therefore, between the research economy development and energy consumption relational this question is very important, moreover also only then persisted saves the development, the clean development, the safe development, can realize our country economy also to be good develops quickly.This major research work are as follows:First of all, the establishment of a1952-2011year without considering the catastrophe point measuring model of factors affecting energy consumption in China. On China’s energy consumption and GDP of China, urbanization, industrialization, the import, export and other indicators for ADF unit root test judge its smoothness, then multivariate linear regression analysis, after further discussion on the influence factors of China’s energy consumption and the quantitative relationships between, and mutations related to the next point model in the case of comparative analysis.Secondly, based on Bayesian inference method to build a model of China’s energy consumption mutation. Bayesian methods to determine the logarithmic sequence of China’s energy consumption in the presence of the judge of the number and location of the mutation point mutation point, and the introduction of dummy variables, each mutation to the cut-off point to build a dummy variable model, and does not consider before The model of the mutation points for companson.Finally, the analysis of the mutation point of China’s energy consumption, and to analyze the the theoretical mechanism between China’s economic growth, urbanization, industrialization and energy consumption.Through the theoretical analysis, we draw the following conclusions:only one mutation point in time based on Bayesian inference1952-2011years, China’s energy consumption for1976. In1976, China’s energy consumption by its three factors affect efforts descending order:industrialization, urbanization and economic growth, and very close to the intensity of the impact of the three; while after1976, China’s energy consumption by the impact of economic growth is almost negligible compared to the other two factors. Provide information on the presence of the mutations have a great influence on China’s energy consumption. Around the break point the national policy core work emphasis point differs from,1952-1976year our country always occupies the socialism exploration stage, the national policy core work is take the class struggle as the outline, ossifies half ossification, seals up half seal the condition, after but1976, our country has occurred take the economic development as central, the comprehensive reform, the opening to the outside world historical transformation. Finally, analysis of the mutation point of energy consumption in China, and analyze the the theoretical mechanism between China’s economic growth, urbanization, industrialization and energy consumption.