A Study Of The Relations Between Energy Consumption And Economic Growth And The Forecast Of Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has entered a period of rapid growth,people’s live are improving.But at the same time many problems show up.Energy consumption is also increasing rapidly,which leads to China’s energy supply gap continues to widen and that may seriously restrict China’s economic development.China is not only consuming a large amount of energy but also importing a lot of energy,so how to ensure a stable supply of energy has become a concern.In this context,studying the relationship between consumption and economic growth of China and forecasting the total energy consumption will have important guiding significance for the healthy economic development of China.Firstly,the paper goes back on the study of energy consumption and economic growth,then the energy consumption projections were reviewed and summarized;secondly,the paper analyzes the current situation of China’s energy consumption and economic growth and trends in energy consumption and economic growth at present,which shows that they have a strong corelation.And then in this paper,studies of energy consumption and economic growth in the bivariate and multivariate model based on cointegration results show that there is no two-way Granger causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth,the energy consumption is the Granger cause of economic growth.Meanwhile,the paper uses canonical correlation to analyze the mechanism of action of China’s energy consumption structure on economic growth,the results show that the second industry has a strong correlation with electricity consumption.The electricity consumption promotes the economic growth mainly by promoting the development of the secondary industry.Meanwhile,the secondary industry has a strongest dependence of energy..Finally,the paper use GM(1,1)model of the gray prediction theory to forecast China’s total energy consumption in the next five years,the result shows that the total energy consumption will continue to increase in the next five years.Last but not least,the trend of growth of energy consumption goes up during 2018-2020,which means our country will still face the energy supply pressure in the future.