Energy Demand Forecasting Of Henan Province In The Process Of Industrialization And Urbanization

Energy is an important material resource of humanity society, the economy development of every country or region need the support of energy. In recent years, rapid economic growth makes a number of provinces and cities in our country faced with serious energy supply crisis, particularly after snow and ice natural disaster. The energy supply security has been paid more and more attention by Local Government. Henan Province is abundant in resources, and its coal production has been in the forefront among our country. But in last few years, the Energy gap between supply and demand becomes more and more grievous. It is estimated that to 2020, Henan province's economy will continue to grow rapidly, and industrialization and urbanization will further advance. Whether the Henan energy industry can support the high speed economic growth has become one of great significance and common concern in Henan. Therefore, to establish the energy demand forecasting model ,forecast the energy demand in the next several years, and analyze the characteristic of energy consumption have an important meaning for Henan government to establish reasonable strategies for economic development and energy security .Until now. there is no literatures which see the industrialization and the urbanization as two important influence factors simultaneously in the energy consumption forecasting model. Taking the industrialization and the urbanization into consideration, this paper discussed the causation of energy consumption.GDP, industrial structure, urbanization, prices and energy efficiency, using the method co-integration and error correction model, and predicted the the energy demand in three cases that supposing the economy is developing with high, medium and low growth. In addition, this paper alse utilized the gray system model .trends forecasting model and time-variant weights combined forecasting model to carry on the forecast from other perspectives.The industrialization and the urbanization are the developing processes which each society must pass through. The history of developed countries indicated that the energy consumption changes in the law during the process of the industrialization and urbanization. At present, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shandong Province has entered an advanced stage of industrialization, whether the energy consumption also showed a certain degree of regularity is one of the focuses of this paper ,as well as how helpful the experience and lessons that accumulates by Developed province for Henan . at last, comparing Henan with the the three provinces, the paper put forward the actual energy development stratagem for Henan: adjusting the industrial structure of Henan Province; adopting energy-saving strategies, improving energy efficiency; developing Renewable energy, optimizing energy consumption structure .