Research On Cogeneration Projects Risk Assessment Based On The Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process

With the new requirements from the nation in the development of the energy industry, optimize the structure of the energy industry and the intension of energy supply, power supply building bears the dual capacity of urban infrastructure construction and energy supply, whose saving and environmental protection is more important. Cogeneration is recognized as an effective energy-saving way, cogeneration projects successful implementation will impact on the overall urban energy supply and optimization of industrial structure directly, therefore its risk assessment and risk control should be paid more attention.At present, domestic and international research in this area is mainly concentrated in the risk management of the ordinary project and the economic evaluation of the projects in cogeneration. Specific to cogeneration project risk assessment, it is limited to certain aspects related to practical application, such as major equipment performance testing and direct supply of heat system stability evaluation. There is no mature theory and evaluation methodology. Therefore, with the combination of the requirements of the projects risk and the actual situation of cogeneration construction projects, it’s of great theoretical and practical significance to build energy efficiency evaluation index system and design evaluation model to evaluate the energy efficiency of cogeneration construction projects.The paper first discussed the cogeneration construction project risk assessment theory; and then discusses the risk assessment of domestic and foreign projects and cogeneration aspects of research and dynamic, vacancies for cogeneration project risk assessment described in detail. Depth studied cogeneration projects of various risk factors and their internal relations, classification, induction, with reference to the principle of the project risk assessment system, built cogeneration project risk assessment system, detailed described the meaning of each indicator and do further decomposition, including indicators, data representation, data acquisition methods. Finally, reference to the characteristics of risk assessment indicators, paper used gray-level analysis methods to build a cogeneration construction project risk assessment model, then use the risk assessment model in the country electricity Baoding northwest of Thermal Power Plant project, the calculation results showed that the established system of evaluation indicators system and evaluation method is feasible and can solve the problem of cogeneration construction project risk assessment and hope to provide a guiding role for Chinese thermal power-generation construction project risk assessment.