| Since China introduced reform and opening policies, the Chinese economy hasmaintained rapid development, and has become the world ’s second biggest economy now,but the per capita GDP is still at low level, however, China faces with the problem of “oldbefore richâ€, with China ’s population ageing fast. In addition, with the family planningpolicy long-term practice, family structure has changed greatly, there are many “421†family,or “8421†family, the miniaturization of family scale greatly increases the pressure oftraditional family endowment, and this pressure will continue to increase. For long timeChina’s urban and rural discriminatory development leads to the situation of "farmers’ life isso hard, rural areas are so poor and agriculture is in risk ", farmers’ appeals are disconsidered,farmers’ interests failed to secure,farmers’ endowment are resolved, even the traditionalfamily old-age security is also unsustainable. China’s rural need to build a sustainableendowment security system as a necessary safety net urgently, research on the rural old-agesecurity problems not only has a strong theoretical value, also is important embodiment of“the people-oriented strategyâ€, while China’s economy develop rapidly and urban endowmentsystem constantly perfect.Since China’s rural old-age security system construction started in1990, it has beendeveloping slowly, has not been forming a complete set of security system, and present afragmentation characteristic. Land has been regarded as farmers’ natural security or lowestguarantee, However, with the continuous decrease of the cultivated lands and growing ofrising costs and the unclear rural land property rights, the land basic safeguard function isalso weakening,family size miniaturization also bring a lot of pressure to the traditionalfamily endowment. The rural social pension develops serious lag, due to the system designdefects and government financial support insufficient,therefore, the government should set upand perfect rural social pension insurance as soon as possible, long-term urban and ruraldevelopment, the current land and census register obstacles,government responsibility flawand development idea errors are the main reasons of rural old-age support securitydevelopment lagging behind. This article predicts2012to2030rural elderly (65+) total population and farmers old people per capita old-age security requirements,through the GM(1,1) model and ELES model, and then measure the old-age rural security demand change, toproveit feasible for China to build rural society endowment security in the economy, andreference the developed countries’ family and social old-age security experience, then putforward countermeasures and suggestions to establish and perfect China’s rural old-agesupport security. This paper argues that the establishment of rural social endowment securityis very necessary and very urgent, for a long time in the future, the traditional familyendowment and land endowment are still the main endowment ways of farmers, but we alsocan not ignore farmers enjoy social security and basic human rights,government shouldactively develop the collective old-age security function, and establish a consolidated urbanand rural society endowment security system as soon as possible. |