Study On Factors That Affect Dairy Stability In Heil Ongjiang Province

The development of dairy industry can not only promote the improvement of the dietary structure, improve residents’physical quality, but also play an important role in promoting the first, second and third industry’s development, and promoting economic development. Specifically, the development of dairy industry involved planting and processing forage grass, feeding and management techniques of cow, transportation and collection of milk, production and processing of milk and so on, that needed both technical support and the protection of the law, system and supervision, needed both government support and the efforts of enterprise, farmers and consumers.This paper introduced the basic concepts of dairy industry, defined the concept of the steady development of dairy industry. Combined related theory of supply-demand and cobweb model, through accessing data, finally analyzed present situation of the dairy industry development in Heilongjiang province from the original milk production, the processing, the sale, the consumption four links, concluded that the development of dairy in Heilongjiang province not only have a big advantage, but also have the disadvantage of consumption shortage and breeding lower level.This paper argued that the dairy stability can be reflected by prices of dairy products, so chose cobweb model to analyze the stability of dairy products prices in Heilongjiang province, drew that from2002to2005the supply price elasticity of the dairy products was bigger than the demand price elasticity, so dairy industry in a precarious situation. From2006to2009, the supply price elasticity of the dairy products was smaller than the demand price elasticity, Heilongjiang province price of dairy products changed from divergent cobweb model to convergent type cobweb model. Dairy prices from an unstable state into a relatively stable state, that can be considered that the Heilongjiang dairy industry development tend to a stable state.In the process of analyzing influence factors of dairy stability in Heilongjiang province, this paper combined Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with principal component analysis method, used AHP to construct the index of the system, which can be divided into breeding, processing link, sales link and consumptive link4rule layers,16plans. By expert scoring method, determined the weight that index accounted for, simplified the levels of the index, and eventually selected10indicators. Use the principal component method to determine the main influence factors of the dairy stability in Heilongjiang province. According to component matrix, divide the component of stability factors of dairy into supply factors and demand factors, and the demand factors as the first principal component.Demand factors included household income level, Heilongjiang transportation ability and wholesale and retail enterprise profit margin. Transportation ability affected the dairy products consumption outside Heilongjiang province, Heilongjiang household income level and the development of wholesale and retail enterprise played an important role in affecting dairy consumption in province. Supply factors included dairy farmers’ income level, dairy products’ quality safety scale. In a certain extent, these factors directly affected the stability of the supply and dairy stability. By calculating the total score, concluded that from the1999to2009Heilongjiang province’s dairy industry developed gradually and the stability enhanced, this confirmed the judgment results of the cobweb model.At the end of the article, learned experience from developed dairy industry development of countries such as the Netherlands, the United States, New Zealand, and combined with the above analysis of the influence factors of dairy in Heilongjiang province, put forward related countermeasures to ensure the stability of the dairy in Heilongjiang province.