Study On Financial Crisis Early-warning Of Small And Medium-Sized Enterprise Board Of Chinese Listed Companies

With the rapid development of economic globalization, companies face a fiercer and fiercer market competition and more and more diversified risk and always face with some kinds of crisis and the financial crisis is one of the most important kind of crisis. In May2004, China formally launched the small and medium-sized enterprises board in Shenzhen Stock Exchange which mainly provides financing platform for high growth and high technical small and medium enterprises. Compared with the motherboard listed companies, small and medium-sized board listed companies have they own characteristics and face with more financial crisis. So building a strong predictive ability financial crisis early-warning model for small and medium-sized board listed companies has a very strong theoretical and practical significance.Based on reviewing the research literature at home and abroad, this paper summarizes the related financial crisis early-warning theories and analyses the characteristics and the crisis causes of the small and medium-sized board listed companies. Then selects59companies which were special treated and delisting warned in2010and2011while selects59companies that have the similar scale and the same or similar industries with the formers as the research objects, then selects26financial indexes and9non-financial indexes third year before falling into financial crisis. This paper also utilizes logistic regression analysis to build a financial crisis early-warning model which respectively bases on pure financial indexes and introducing non-financial indexes and check the forecasting accuracy of the two models. The results show that for the modeling samples, the introducing non-financial indexes model has0.85%higher forecasting accuracy comparing with the pure financial indexes early-warning model which explains the overall precision of forecasting and practical applicability more or less the same. For inspection samples, the introducing non-financial indexes model has6.0%higher forecasting accuracy and the overall precision of forecasting has improved a lot. This paper thinks in order to increase the forecasting accuracy the two kinds of models are both needed then make the final decision whether a company will explode financial crisis.Finally the paper makes same suggestions contraposing the result and points out the insufficiency and the limitations of the paper.