Early-warning Research Of Financial Predicament Based On Data From Small And Medium-sized Enterprise Board In China

When the stock exchange has been established in1990, the number of listedcompanies has risen from14in1991to2494in2012, in which increase178times.With the competitive environment of market economy increasingly intense,enterprises are faced with unprecedented challenges, the most prominent of which isloss has increasing year by year. Therefore it is meaningful to establish an effectivefinancial early-warning model for enterprises themselves or stakeholders to monitorthe enterprise’s financial health and take precautions in a timely and effective manner.On the basis of reference to previous studies, the definition and causes offinancial predicament was included, and the select principle of early-warningindicators and a series of the classic techniques and methods were described. In thisdissertation,66training samples were selected, which were composed of33financialpredicament companies and33normal companies, and16financial indexes and4non-financial indexes were chosen. In virtue of statistic software of SPSS19.0, firstly,this dissertation make use of paired samples T-test to discover the significant indexes.Secondly, The factor analysis was used to reduce indexes, avoid the multicollinearityinfluence, and find out the main factors indicating companies in financial predicamentby virtue of the remarkable indexes. Finally, the dissertation set up logistic modelbased on the host factors, and tested its effectiveness.The study showed that the mainfactors on behalf of debt-paying ability, shareholdings and so on were significantlycorrelated with financial predicament, which were composed of cash flow ratio, debtratio, managerial shares ratio, dividend payout ratio, etc. It’s showed there were only2financial predicament companies and7normal companies determined inconsistentwith the facts. And the total correct rate reached86.35%, which meant predictivemodel was appropriate.