Empirical Research On Financial Crisis Early-warning Of Listed Companies On SME Board Of Shenzhen Stock Exchange

The listed companies on SME Board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange have the same characteristic of high growth potential,high risk and high rentability.Most of the companies on this Board are high-tech enterprise,and they are the pioneers of high-tech and new technology industry.They develop new products depending upon a key technology,and then grow up with a rapid speed in quiet short time.But the development prospect is not explicit.The listed companies develop with higher operational risk than those on main Board.So recognizing its high growth potential and the uncertainty of future is the key point to accurately appraise the campanies'growth ability .It is an important research project for listed campanies on SME Board that how to avoid the listed companies from financial crisis,and how to forcast the situation of campanies'operation.This article utilizes the empirical analysis method to systematically study the forewarn of financial crisis of the listed campanies on SME Board.Then the investor and other benefit counterparts can understand the listed companies'financial situation promptly.And this also provided the basis for enterprise management to make operating plan and to judge whether the company develops well.So this research has specially important theory significance and feasibility applied research value for the healthy development of SME Board.The article selects the companies as fail companies that their ROIC is smaller than WACC in recent three years.Then,select success companies of the similar scale and same industry with the fail ones.There we get two sanples.One is fail companies ,the other is success companies.We established a financial appraisal index system that can reflect the enterprises'fanancial achievement comprehensively.Make independent sample T-test to the financial index and screen those index that can sharply distinguish the healthy companies and the fail companies .Then use those index to establish as the independent variable.Finally construct the financial crisis early-warning model of listed companies on SME board and and prove its'validity.