The Research Of Financial Crisis Early-warning Model For Small And Medium-sized Enterprises

Since the reform and opening door abroad, China’s economic construction has made agreat progress.As a branch of the most viable micro-economic subjects,SMEs have made agreat contribution to China’s socialist market economy and become an important part of thenational economy.But faced with domestic and international more and more intensecompetition and financial environment risks,the SMEs survival pressure also grow witheach passing day.Practice has proved that the SMEs survival crisis largely come fromfinancial crisis,and financial crisis is emerging gradually from quantitative change toqualitative change.This paper uses early-warning management theory and the normativetheory of financial crisis early-warning to study the financial crisis early-warning modelbased on non-financial indicators.So we can help enterprise managers analyze the businessoperations and financial status, timely find the facing crisis, provide a scientific basis toguard against and dufuse financial crisis,and try our best to reduce the loss caused offinancial crisis triggered by SMEs and the associated interest groups to ensure the stabilityand sustainable development of the national economy.This article is divided into seven parts.The first part is an introduction, it importantly introduce the article goal as well as thesignificance,research technique content which this article uses,the technicalroute,innovation and insufficient places.The second part is basic theory,reviews and summarizes the correlative theoriesachievement of domestic and foreign,in order to lay the rationale for this research.The third part mainly explains financial crisis early-warning of the SMEs.It introducesthe concept of SME and financial crisis,analyze the status of SMEs financial managementand the reasons caused financial crisis,and also summarizes the function of financial cris isearly-warning to lay the rationale for next analysis.The fourth part mainly summarizes the financial crisis early-warningmodel,respectively introduces the qualitative early-warning model and quantitativemodel,and scientific model of SMEs based on their own characteristics.The fifth part explains the importance of non-financial indicators,and improves thetraditional efficacy coefficient evaluation model,at the same time tries to build a scientificefficacy coefficient evaluation model based on non-financial indicators for SMEs.The sixth part is empirical analysis,uses the new early-warning model built in the fifthpart to verify its effectiveness. The seventh part is the summary of the full text,and looks into the future research.In comparison with existing research results,the innovation of this article mainlymanifests in: first, the study object of this text is SMEs to fill the bank on financial crisisearly-warning;secondly,this article improved the traditional efficacy coefficient evaluationmodel of the SMEs which did not consider non-financial indicators and expanded theconnotation of the model.In the new model this text tried to include reliable non-financialindicators and used scientific method to determine the weight of the non-financialindicators and the final quantitative results in order to improve the comprehensiveness andpracticality of the model with a view to effectively play the function of financial crisisearly-warning model.