Changes And Inventory Prediction Of Arable Land Resources Quantity In Shandong Province

Land resources, especially arable land, are irreplaceable natural resources on which human beingsdepend directly. The security of quantity of the cultivated land resource is an indispensible part in nationalsecurity and regional security, which guarantees the sustainable development. The gradual reduction ofcultivated land resource poses a serious threatens to the food security, social stability and to the maintainingof biodiversity. What’s more, a prediction of the inventory of the arable land is the core of the planning ofland utilization, and the basis of land management. A scientific prediction of the inventory can lead to asolution to the conflicts between agricultural land and land for non-agricultural construction purposes, andto the conflicts among the departments in agriculture in land use. Besides, the scientific prediction can helpto achieve the equilibrium of supply and demand in land use, and help to make full use of the land.Shandong province, one of the agriculture-dominated provinces, not only shoulders the responsibilityfor the development of agricultural economy, but also bears the historical mission of building “the EfficientEcological Economic Zone of the Yellow River Delta” and “the Blue Economic Zone”. Therefore, in orderto guarantee the sustainable development of social economy and ecological environment, the following areurgently needed: a quantitative analysis must be done to the cultivated land, a scientific prediction must bedone to the inventory of the future cultivated land, and a reasonable program of the protection of cultivatedland should be designed. These are particularly instructive to the practical work, such as land planning, landutilization, and arable land protecting.In this thesis the following indicators-the quantity of cultivated land in Shandong province, the totalpopulation, the area of cultivated land per capita, and the grain yield per unit area, are studied in aquantitative analytical method. A quantitative analysis is done to the influential elements. And somemathematic methods, such as Regression Analysis Model, are employed to predict the inventory of thearable land in the target year. In addition, two research methods, which are based on the study of foodsafety and the trend of cultivated land per capita respectively, are compared in an analytic hierarchy process.Then these two methods are combined in the predicting of the inventory of the arable land in Shandongprovince. Considering the existing problems in the current situation, some suggestions are proposed inorder to realize the aim. The following are the main conclusions in this thesis:(1) From1949to2007, the quantity of the arable land in Shandong province decreased in general,that is, it dropped by1,879,000hm~2in total. And each year there decreased32,400hm~2, that is, by0.37%. There are five phases: form1949to1955, the area is increasing by0.99%; from1955to1961, the area ofarable land is decreasing alarmingly by2.28%; from1961to2001, the area is decreasing slowly by0.45%;form2001to present, the area is increasing in a relatively stable ratio.(2) From1949to2007, the quantity of the cultivated land per capita in Shandong province fluctuated,while it decreased in general. The number dropped to0.073hm~2per capita in2007, below the nationalaverage of0.092hm~2per capita and much lower than the worldwide level of0.233hm~2per capita.(3) The qualitative methodology is used in the analysis of influential elements in the variation of theareas of the arable land in Shandong province. It is found that increasing population, natural conditions,economic benefit, and national policies are four influential elements, among which the increasingpopulation is the direct one. Good natural conditions provide a unique congenital condition for the unusedland area being transformed to cultivated land. On the other hand the continuous deteriorating of the naturalconditions will lead to the deteriorating of the arable land both in quantity and quality. From the perspectiveof economic benefit, benefit maximization leads to the larger portion of construction land and land used forthe planting of economic crops, which causes the changes in agriculture and the continuous decreasing ofarable land. National policies influence arable land in that the policies are the responding of the governmentdone to the land utilization. The government releases the related policy according to the various structuresof land utilization.(4) Two research methods, which are based on the study of food safety and the trend of cultivatedland per capita respectively, are used in the predicting of the inventory of the arable land. To improve theforecasting precision, these two methods are combined in an analytic hierarchy process, with the portion of0.3and0.7respectively. By calculating, the inventory of the arable land in2020should be around7,333,000hm~2.