Study On China’s Cultivated Land Protection Red Line Based On The Food Security

Food security is one of the major issues of social stability and economic development in ourcountry. As the base of grain production, cultivated land and its protection is the core to ensure foodsecurity. Our country has strict cultivated land protection policy, and1.8billion mu is proposed as thegoal of cultivated land protection red line. Of course there exist some questions. This paper starts fromthe point of food security, then analyzes the grain demand, grain production and other relevantcircumstances, finally predicts the cultivated land area that need to protect in2020and2030.Below are the main contents and conclusions:1. Analyzing the meaning of food security. Food security is a developing, chain-type andmulti-level concept. Production safety is its core.2. Through analyzing and forecasting the grain self-sufficient rate, population quantity, and percapita grain demand, this paper calculates grain production target, which is571.5-616.6billion in2020and614.8-663.1billion in2030.3. Based on the analysis of unit area grain yield and multiple cropping indexes, this paper proposesthe grain-crops-planting cultivated land area to achieve the domestic food production target. Theproposed grain-crops-planting cultivated land area is1.144-1.234billion mu in2020and1.129-1.218billion mu in2030.4. Based on the analysis of proportion of grain-crops-planting cultivated land area, this paperexplores the proportion’s impact on food security, and forecasts its downward trend will be continued,but the rate of decline will be gradually slow. The proportion of grain-crops-planting cultivated landarea should be not less than66%in2020and not less than65%in2030, so as to safeguard the foodsecurity.5. According to the index of grain-crops-planting cultivated land area and proportion ofgrain-crops-planting cultivated land area, this paper calculated cultivated land demand to ensure foodsecurity in the future, which is the cultivated land protection red line. The cultivated land demand willbe1.733-1.870billion mu in2020and1.737-1.873billion mu in2030.