China Provincial Tourism-leading Analysis

Since the1960s, along with the Development Economics Research and Measurement revolution, there are more and more attention has been paid on the research of regional leading industries, which research is closely related to a country or region’s economic development. The research boom followed with the development of economic, and the transfer has gone through the United States-Japan-China, which are also on the primary stage of economic development and economic take-off countries or regions. In China, which economic growth rapidly, tourism as an important part in the national economic system, is critical for the regional economic development, which is particularly necessary sensitive period of transition in China’s national economy.China is in the middle of industrialization stage; besides developing the regional leading industry at the same time, each region shall develop strategic emerging industries basing on the requirements of national12th five-year plan, realize the optimization and upgrade of industrial structure, and promote the coordinated development of regional economy, society and environment.Basing on the background, the prior research and comparative analysis of the actual situation in our country, in accordance with the regional leading in the principles of the concise conciseness and scientific selection combining, in the principles of subjectivity and the principle of combining the systematic structure and dynamic combining, in the principles of flexibility and comparability combining, we eventually select the scope of tourism, tourism growth potential and tourism industries advanced as three benchmarks, and then construct10indexes including Location Quotient, production scale, fixed assets scale, employment scale, profit tax scale, the average growth rate, income elasticity of demand, compared labor productivity, technological progress speed and Professional talent education shots.In view of the multi-level and complexity of benchmarks and indexes, This paper take the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) of relatively commonly used, then determine the weights of indexes with the aid of expert scores. Combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, empirical and normative analysis, the national economy development five-year plan, taking1990,1995,2000,2005,2010as five time nodes, this paper recognizes the industrial leading industry of31provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in recent twenty years. Basing on the recognition, this paper makes analyses based on time, space, and the space-time continuum. According to the development rules of leading industries, we estimate the reasonableness and feasibility of leading industries determined by The Twelfth Five-Year Plan for different regions, and then further provide policy suggestions for the choice of tourism leading industries.According to the analysis above, this theme found the conclusions as follows:The tourism-led province was approved to be provinces in northwest and southeast parts of China; The areas of Heilongjiang-Beijing-Shanxi-Ningxia-Tibet,Anhui-Guizhou,Hainan,which seem as a Triangular structure are approved to be the high tourism-led province. Medium tourism-led provinces are mainly located in the central and southwestern regions; Nearly20years of tourism development, tourism went a fold linear development, enjoyed the technological progress and increasing labor productivity;The tourism industry leading of Beijing, Shanghai, Tibet, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hainan, Anhui, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin is great rationality.In the present stage of Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Sichuan province, the focus of the national economy still is the traditional advantage industry, such as industry and agriculture. The government can put some attention on the tourism, but not to rely on for. Some provinces,such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong, whose economy is developed. Because of that, the industry leading relatively of tourism is weaker than other industry.