Herders’Vulnerability Evaluation In Northern Grassland Of China

China northern natural grassland area of about313million hm2, accounts for the natural grassland area of79.7%, plays a maintenance countries and regions of the importance of safety ecological barrier function. MuHu is the most basic province of production and life unit. In recent years, the influence of the global warming will be in north China province temperate nature disasters, living in the local nomads living by the ecological environment of the adverse impact of the deterioration of the environment. At the same time, as China’s vast prairie areas\"double right a system\"the land property rights system adjustment, prompted the nomadic to settle for animal husbandry production transitions, lead to the development of animal husbandry grassland the centre of the transfer. At the same time, along with the market economy to develop the market, economic factors leading province in China started production of animal husbandry, social economic factors change in pastoral areas of social disintegration of the original operating mechanism, by the social economy, etc MuHu livelihood unstable factors of impact risk increase. The natural environment of the time rate of change of enhancement and the social economic risk factors, the strengthening to grassland area with social and economic development and living in the local nomads sustainable ability construction bring serious adverse effect, become the vulnerability in north China province MuHu sustainable development ability construction of a important analysis perspective.This study in sustainable livelihood perspectives, by analyzing the vulnerability research situation at home and abroad, vulnerability concept development, evaluation framework and evaluation method of the range of application, and combined with the aim of this study. To clarify the vulnerability in concept, evaluation framework and methods, and on the basis of consulting experts choose Delphi method constructs the province in the north of MuHu vulnerability evaluation index system. By setting up model.it consult, early to index system, a questionnaire consult expert opinion, calculation experts positive coefficient, authority degree, expert advice coordination degree process, etc. Finally established includes human capital, natural capital, physical capital, financial capital and social capital five goal level indicator; Contains family whole labor ability, whether to have adult male labor, family members by the degree of education, and the per capita contracting pasture productivity, all use pasture productivity, housing, area of canopy, family fixed assets, livestock resources, MuHu family cash income, can get free financial aid, policy information sources, market information sources, and to social security situation, attend social organization altogether15index of indicators MuHu vulnerability evaluation index system. In China’s Inner Mongolia region of the desert province typical of XiLinGuoLeMeng SuNi YouQi, SuNi ZuoQi and SiZiWangQi, especially as the research sample province area for MuHu vulnerability case studies. The results of the study show that:1. Through the two rounds of expert opinion consult, experts actively participate in the establishment of the evaluation index system, expert opinion authority degree is high, coordinate coefficient of expert opinion by statistics inspection, p<0.001, value know therefore that by using this method, the construction of five target level of index15index of indicators province in the north of MuHu vulnerability evaluation index system is rational and scientific, and high reliability.2. The study area MuHu family vulnerability index concentration distribution in0.60-0.79between, or68.25%of the total, visible and vulnerability of the present distribution among the exponent value together, and the distribution of the partial less on both sides. Further through the kernel density estimation, vulnerability index of normal distribution QQ value and Shapiro-will g inspection method, and the results show that the area MuHu family vulnerability index there were normal distribution.3. Use of cluster analysis to study area is divided into MuHu vulnerability into two types of high and low, through the variance inspection, F value was significant, show that will study area MuHu according to the discretion of the vulnerability index are divided into two classes have rationality. Can see, SiZiWangQi MuHu high vulnerability ratio of the number of total MuHu survey,86.1%higher than SuNi YouQi, SuNi special ZuoQi. Vulnerability to see from the incidence of the study area MuHu vulnerability severity in order is as follows:SiZiWangQi> SuNi YouQi> SuNi ZuoQi, especially. Overall, the study area MuHu high vulnerability is66.91%, the study area MuHu vulnerability in higher level, MuHu resist and alleviate the negative influences of ability are relatively weak.4. Through the analysis of the study area MuHu vulnerability of demographic characteristics and poverty features found that:in the face of the risk adverse impact, sufficient human capital resources can effectively smooth MuHu vulnerability fluctuation; Has the characteristics of consumption poverty family income more than poor family with into fragile may.5. Through in the study area MuHu vulnerability index variance analysis found; The study area a flag MuHu county vulnerability index there exist obvious differences between the area. SiZiWangQi MuHu vulnerability is the index of the largest, SuNi YouQi, is the second smallest, and SuNi ZuoQi’s lowest, the result with MuHu high vulnerability as through the incidence of three flags county MuHu vulnerability in evaluation results are in agreement. Each type of capital vulnerability index there was significant difference.