Study On Risk Evaluation Model Of Forestry Investment Projects

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation applied in risk evaluation of forestry investment projects was studied in this article. Above all, it gave a summary of forestry project risk management and pointed out that the risk management and evaluation of forestry project is still in the initial stage. Thus, the theory of project risk management and the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation were put forward to evaluate forestry project’s risk. Secondly, the risk evaluation index of forestry investment projects system was analyzed and designed, on the basis of it, through the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method, the paper established a weight system to show the index weight distribution of north forestry investment project and south forestry investment project Thirdly, based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory and forestry features, this study constructed an evaluation model. Last, a case study was used.This study combined the means of qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, empirical research with theory research. Through a systematic and comprehensive study, the following basic conclusions were drawn. First, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation could be used to evaluate forestry investment project risk because that forestry project was influenced by many risk factors and showed fuzziness. This study divided risk into five categories:natural risk, policy risk, technical risk, social risk and management risk. Second, because of the differences of regional forestry investment project’s risk, the risk index weight should be discussed by south and north area. Third, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model can evaluate forestry investment project risk levels scientifically, so as to provide investors and policymakers information of project risk assessment and decision support.