Research On The Investment Risk Evaluation Of The Customer Premises Network (CPN) Project Based On The Fuzzy-AHP Process

With the constant deepening of the reform in state-owned telecommunications companies, the communications industry has been developed from the original one monopoly to a new competition pattern including China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. Especially under the background of the Internet era, the customer premises network (CPN), one of the basic communication services, has become the major business battlefield where three communication operators compete. The selection and development of CPN has become the important source of profit of communication operators under new background. The key to the success or failure of the communications operators is how to adopt scientific methods of carrying out the investment evaluation and selection of CPN.This paper combines analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCE), and constructs a practical and feasible investment risk evaluation model for CPN, aiming to provide strong support for the enterprise decision makers in terms of improving investment decision-making ability and reducing the risk of investment.This paper introduces CPN at the beginning, and gives an overview of project investment risk and the evaluation of this risk. Through the introduction of the concept of CPN and the currently basic operating mode of the investment of domestic and foreign CPN, the main problems existing in the CPN construction and the relevant laws and regulations was analyzed. The theory about project investment risk and the evaluation of this risk could provide theoretical basis for the building of investment risk evaluation model of CPN.The base of the investment risk evaluation model of CPN is building the index system of risk. According to the principles of index system, coupled with the method of expert interview, the risk factors which has been identified include three types of risk:risk related to efficiency and benefit, risk related to technology and risk related to corporate responsibility. In the end index system of investment risk of CPN was built, divided into three major categories, and eight small class, and composed of 19 indexes in total.Building investment risk evaluation model of CPN by combining the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mainly included the introduction of CPN, the index system building of investment risk for CPN, the structure of the judgement matrix of risk evaluation, the determining of risk index weight and the consistency check of judgement matrix, the order of risk factors by importance, and calculating the overall risk degree of project investment as well as the decision-making of project investment risk by FCE.The application research of the risk evaluation model was conducted with the CPN in J city as a case. The first is the simple introduce of CPN project, and the index system construction of investment risk of CPN for a project. Combined with the characteristics of a project, weight calculation and consistency check was conducted at all levels of hierarchical structure, and the index weight table was obtained. Then the possibility determination of high, medium and low risk for each risk factor was carried out using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the investment risk degree (distribution of risk probability) of a project was obtained by integrating all of the factors. The results provided the policy recommendations for the investment risk evaluation of a project.In this paper, the investment risk evaluation model of CPN can realize the combination of qualitative and quantitative evaluation of CPN project investment risk, and provide the scientific and effective guidance for the selection of project, so as to improve the success rate of project investment of telecommunication operators, and increase the level of profitability and project management of telecommunication operators.