| In regional economic theory and practice, it is an important task to choosing leading industries scientifically and rationally. It has been proven by world economic history that leading industries drive the rapid development of regional economy by diffusion effect. In the Yangtze River Delta, Ningbo is an important advanced manufacturing base,also a modern logistics base and an international port city. Through30years of development since reform and opening up, Ningbo City has established a competitive industrial foundation. During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, Ningbo faces an important issue to optimize industrial upgrading reform and achieve rapid economic development with the world’s industrial transfer opportunities in the changing international environment.Based on the points above,the paper analyses the mechanism of the industrial development through explaining the basic concept of industry, industrial structure and leading industry. After introducing the classification of industry, the evolution of industrial structure and the basic framework of leading industry,the paper want to clarify the nature of theoretical research of leading industry, and synthesize domestic and foreign research about the criteria and the index system of choosing leading industries.According to the characteristics of Ningbo’s industries, the paper establishes the criteria, index system and evaluation methods of choosing leading industries in Ningbo city by principal component analysis. According to the analysis above, the Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products and Equipment Manufacturing represented by the Electric Equipment and Machinery Manufacturing are qualified to be the leading industries of Ningbo City. According to the results of empirical analysis and basing on the reality of Ningbo City, the paper synthesize those two industries.The Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products has high degree of industrial correlation and scale effect,with a high level of industrial capital. And its productivity is not high because the chains of Chemical Industry with other industries are still incomplete.The Equipment Manufacturing has high productivity level, but its industrial capital is low.Except of the Electric Equipment and Machinery Manufacturing, the correlation with other industries is not significant and the scale effect is weak. The development of Equipment Manufacturing is limited with the characteristic of small-scale enterprises in Ningbo City.Basing on the history of industrial evolution in Ningbo City and relevant planning of governments,the paper discusses the development of the city in future and proposes relevant measures and related recommendations. Through planning rationally and taking advantages of the port, Ningbo City should build advanced manufacturing industrial base, accelerate the development of industrial clusters,build the chains in industries, and increase human capital investment to adapt to the rapid development of industries in Ningbo City. |
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