Risk Impact Analysis And Recovery Strategies Simulation Evaluation Of Supply Chain Disruption

Along with the development of globalization of business，lean managementmeasures implemented for pursuing the interests and the frequent catastrophic events，and so on，the probability of supply chain disruption risk is increasing. At the sametime，disruption risk will bring great influence and loss to the enterprise. Therefore，supply chain disruption risk management has been a hotspot of supply chainmanagement theory and practice development. As current similar studies only focuson the impact which the disruption position brings to the adjacent nodes of upstreamand downstream of the supply chain，but lacking of articles that measure the impact ofdisruption on supply chain performance. To make up the deficiency of currentresearch method，we try to do some studies about supply chain disruption risk analysisand mitigation strategies simulation evaluation from the view of supply chainflexibility management，which has research value and practical significance.In this paper，by focusing on the impact of supply chain disruption and theselection of mitigation strategies，we conducted the research review for supply chaindisruption risk management from three perspectives：disruption risk and developmentof supply chain flexibility、disruption risk and two or multiple echelon supply chainsystem、disruption risk simulation model；based on the sketch about definition andcharacteristics of supply chain disruption risk，we analyze five kinds of commonsupply chain disruption mode and its characteristics：supply disruption，transportationdisruption，device disruption，communication disruption，demand disruption.Based on the disruption risk mitigation targets of supply chain efficiency andsupply chain flexibility，we discuss the mitigation mechanism and the key impactfactors of inventory and back-up mitigation strategies. At the same time，based on thegeneral description of the multi-echelon supply chain system model，we establish themodel of disruption risk concept，which described disruption risks situation of eachnode in detail；then established a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model whichcontains disruption risk situations by using AnyLogic simulation software，whichcould help us observe degree of impact of disruption risk to the whole performance ofsupply chain. Finally，combined with example，we conducted simulation experiments of inventory and back-up mitigation strategies respectively， and evaluated theimplementation results of simulation combined with customer filled rate and thedisruption time；which also provided suggestions for how to choose the mitigationstrategies.For supply chain efficiency and flexibility of disruption risk mitigation targets，this paper provides mitigation mechanism and the key impact factors of inventory andback-up mitigation strategies，the research results help enterprises choose mitigationstrategies reasonably and deal with supply chain disruption risk；at the same time，we established a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model which containsdisruption risk situations by using the superiority of discrete event simulation，whichcould provide experiment analysis tool and suggestions for supply chain design anddisruption mitigation strategy selection.