Optimization Of Technology Foresight Method Based On Scientometrics

This paper puts forward the idea that scientometrics methods can play an important role in the progress of technology foresight to overcome its existing problems and limitations in traditional model. Based on the main process of technology foresight, this thesis expounds the necessity of this idea, especially on the aspects of selecting experts, determining technology topics and enhancing foresight ability. Further, the author takes Japan as an example to demonstrate its feasibility, and proves its operability through the analysis of a case.This article comprehensively adopts literature research, case analysis and empirical research, including 5 main contents. Firstly, the author analyzes the limits of traditional technology foresight model and the defects in the practicing of China. Secondly, he expounds the functions of some scientometrics methods can contribute if they were introduced in. Thirdly, the thesis builds an integrated foresight model that combines scientometrics methods with some qualitative methods, such as Delphi and scenario analysis, and constructs an implementation framework which includes 8 key steps. Fourthly, the paper gives an example to demonstrate the new framework’s advantages and feasibility. Finally, the author makes a conclusion of the whole paper and indicates the promising research fields.Totally speaking, the thesis has done some tentative research on the construction of technology foresight methods model and made certain innovative contributions on enriching the theory and methods of technology foresight.